3 Yog vim li cas cov neeg ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev yuav tsum ua qhov zoo

Nws zoo li cov xov xwm tsis zoo yog qhov tsis muaj peev xwm niaj hnub no. Rau ntau xyoo tas los, txawm tias xov xwm zoo txog kev lag luam yog xov xwm phem rau kev lag luam. Yog, 2022 yog ib txaus ntshai xyoo rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag. Qhov tseeb, nws yog lub xyoo phem tshaj plaws rau cov ntawv cog lus (los ntawm kev tawg av) thiab xya qhov phem tshaj plaws rau US stocks (S&P 500) ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Txawm hais tias peb tseem tsis tau tawm ntawm hav zoov nrog kev nce nqi lossis Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov keeb kwm kev nce qib kev sib tw, cov neeg ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev muaj ntau yam laj thawj rau kev cia siab txog kev lag luam kev lag luam.

3 yog vim li cas rau cov tub ua lag luam kom muaj kev cia siab txog kev lag luam mus sij hawm ntev

Lub sijhawm luv luv ntawm kev ua lag luam yuav tsum nco ntsoov, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rau cov tub ua lag luam sib luag. Tab sis nyob rau lub sij hawm ntev, cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm pleev xim rau ib daim duab zoo dua txog kev ua lag luam zoo.

1. Lub sij hawm dhau mus, kev lag luam ib txwm tau nce ntau dua

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem muaj qhov nruab nrab rov qab los ntawm 10% hauv ib xyoos, tab sis S&P 500 tsuas yog xaus rau ib xyoos nrog 10% rov qab ib zaug. Kev faib tawm ntawm lub xyoo rov qab skew zoo heev, nrog ntau dua 37% ntawm xyoo xaus nrog rov qab los rau sab qaum teb ntawm 20%. Lwm qhov zoo tshaj plaws rau cov tub ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev: qhov nruab nrab, cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus xaus rau xyoo nrog cov txiaj ntsig zoo kwv yees li 75% thiab 89% ntawm lub sijhawm, feem. Hais tias, investor yuav tsum ib txwm npaj rau xyoo tsis hloov pauv, uas coj qhov nruab nrab.

2. Kev lag luam tuaj yeem tig tau sai

Hnub rau hnub

Nyob twj ywm (tsis mus nyiaj ntsuab) feem ntau yog qhov tseem ceeb rau cov tub ua lag luam. Kev lag luam tuaj yeem tig rau lub dime, txawm tias thaum muaj kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws ntawm kev hloov pauv. Qhov tseeb, 70% ntawm cov hnub zoo tshaj plaws rau S&P 500 poob rau hauv xwb ob lub lim tiam ntawm hnub phem tshaj plaws. Raws li daim duab qhia hauv qab no qhia, nco txog hnub zoo tshaj plaws tuaj yeem raug nqi ntau.

Xyoo rau xyoo

Cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus muaj, keeb kwm, rov zoo dua xyoo tom qab ib xyoos poob. Tab sis dab tsi txog tom qab 10 lub xyoo phem tshaj plaws, xws li 2022?

Zoo:

Qhov nruab nrab rov qab rau ob qho tib si sib npaug thiab cov nyiaj tau los tas li tau zoo rau lub xyoo tom qab tshaj tawm qhov poob qis. Daim ntawv cog lus tsuas yog qhov tsis zoo 33% ntawm lub sijhawm xyoo tom ntej thaum cov khoom lag luam ntau dua ntawm npib npib ntawm 45%. Dab tsi yog qhov kev lag luam pom hauv 2023? Qhov ntawd tseem yuav pom, tab sis muaj lwm yam laj thawj rau cov tub ua lag luam mus sij hawm ntev tuaj yeem ua qhov zoo.

3. Nws tsis tshua muaj rau cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus kom poob qis tib lub sijhawm

Nws tsuas yog zaum peb xwb puas tau stocks thiab bonds yog ob qho tib si tsis zoo los xaus rau xyoo. Diversification yog cov cuab yeej muaj zog tshaj plaws cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau txo cov peev txheej, tab sis tsis muaj dab tsi ua haujlwm txhua lub sijhawm. Muab nws tsawg npaum li cas rau stocks thiab bonds kom muaj kev sib raug zoo, muaj yog vim li cas rau ib tug ntau optimistic kev lag luam outlook, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog muab kev kawm tau zoo heev nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej.

Ntau cov txheeb cais txog xyoo sib law liag rau cov khoom lag luam lossis cov ntawv cog lus (ywj siab ntawm ib leeg)

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm BlackRock:

• Bonds muaj yeej tsis poob nyiaj peb xyoos ua ke. Teb Chaws Asmeskas daim ntawv cog lus tsis zoo nyob rau xyoo 2021 thiab 2022, kos npe thib peb cov nyiaj tau los ruaj khov tau poob rov qab txij li xyoo 1926.
• Kev poob xyoo dhau xyoo yog ntau dua rau cov khoom lag luam, raws li koj xav tau. Txij li xyoo 1926, cov khoom lag luam tau poob plaub xyoos sib law liag ib zaug (nruab nrab xyoo 1929 thiab 1932), peb xyoos sib law liag ob zaug (kawg yog 2000 txog 2002), thiab ib qho piv txwv ntawm kev poob rov qab (nruab nrab ntawm 1974 thiab 1975).
• Cov Tshuag tau poob nyiaj tsuas yog 26 ntawm 97 xyoo (1926 txog 2022). Qhov nruab nrab poob hauv ib xyoos yog -13.2% thiab nthuav, qhov nruab nrab rov qab los rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej yog 13.2%. Txawm li cas los xij, volatility yuav tsum tau cia siab: 20 tawm ntawm 25 lub sijhawm tom qab 12 lub hlis tau ntsib ob tus lej nce or poob.

Kev lag luam muaj zog, tab sis tsis yog txhua lub tuam txhab

Yeej yuav muaj kev kub ntxhov. Geopolitical txheej xwm, tshiab highs, tshiab lows, recessions, dais lag luam, paj laum hikes tsuas yog rau npe ob peb (koj tuaj yeem pom tias cov no ua si li cas no). Tab sis tsis hais qhov twg ntawm qhov nkag, dhau sijhawm, ntau yam khoom lag luam tau tsim cov txiaj ntsig zoo. Kev nqis peev yog hais txog lub sij hawm in lub khw, tsis yog sij hawm kev ua lag luam.

Rau qhov yooj yim, kab lus no tau tsom mus rau cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Asmeskas thiab daim ntawv cog lus, uas tsis yog tus sawv cev ntawm ib tiag tiag diversified portfolio uas tej zaum yuav suav nrog kev nqis peev thoob ntiaj teb thiab qhov hnyav sib txawv ntawm cov khoom vaj khoom tsev piv txwv. Thiab nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb kom nco ntsoov tias cov concentrations hauv ib qho kev lag luam lossis kev lag luam txhais tau tias koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg yuav tsis ua raws li cov kev lag luam keeb kwm yav dhau los. Yog li nco ntsoov xyuas koj cov peev nyiaj tiag tiag. Tsis yog tag nrho cov khoom lag luam yuav rov qab los. Los yog txawm coj tag nrho tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index: tom qab peaking nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2000, nws coj dhau 15 xyoos kom rov qab mus rau qhov siab dhau los. Yog li ntau yog caij ntawm koj li cas cov ntaub ntawv tau muab tso rau thiab koj teb li cas thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam txav mus.