Benchmark US Treasury bonds tab tom ntsib lawv qhov phem tshaj plaws txhua xyoo rov qab los txij li xyoo 1788, tab sis qhov loj bounce yuav zoo li xyoo tshiab, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam.
Qhov ntawd yog raws li ib pab pawg kws tshaj lij ntawm Bank of America coj los ntawm Michael Hartnett, uas tau saib 250 xyoo ntawm keeb kwm los xaus tias cov nyiaj tau los rau qhov zoo rov qab rau xyoo 2023, raws li kev lag luam pivot los ntawm "uber-bearish 'inflation shock' thiab cov nqi poob siab. '” rau kev cia siab rau kev lag luam nyiaj txiag.
Daim ntawv qhia los ntawm cov kws tshaj lij qhia txog 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag sau ntawv
TUBMUSD 10Y,
tau poob ib xyoos ib zaug 23% rau hnub tim, thiab tau teem caij rau kev poob ib xyoos ib zaug. Lub sijhawm kawg cov tub ua lag luam pom qhov poob rov qab los yog 1958 txog 1959, hais tias Hartnett. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov cuab yeej cuab tam hauv chav kawm yeej tsis tau ntsib peb lub xyoo ncaj qha ntawm kev poob, thiab lub sijhawm kawg nws pom ntau dua 5% poob tau ua raws li qhov zoo rov qab rau xyoo 1861, raws li lub txhab nyiaj.
Bank of America
Nws daim ntawv qhia tom ntej no qhia tau hais tias yuav ua li cas rov qab mus sij hawm ntev rau US Treasurys tau poob mus rau 50-xyoo qis ntawm 0.7%, los ntawm qhov siab ntawm ntau npaum li 9.7% thaum lub Peb Hlis 2020 muaj kev sib kis qis rau kev lag luam Tshuag.
Rooj zuam
Kev lag luam tau pom 243 tus nqi nce thoob ntiaj teb xyoo no, uas Hartnett tau hais tias tus nqi rau ib hnub ua lag luam, tab sis tam sim no kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus tau pib pivot, muab txoj cai "blinks" los ntawm Bank of England, Royal Bank of Australia thiab Bank of Canada. .
Tus kws tshaj lij tau hais tias lawv pom "kev poob qis" rau kev lag luam ua ntej, uas yuav ua rau muaj kev nce qib tshiab hauv kev qiv nyiaj, qhov qis dua tshiab rau cov peev txheej, yuav muaj nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm xyoo tom ntej. Qhov ntawd yog txawm tias cov khoom lag luam tau teeb tsa rau plaub lub quarter thib plaub vim tias muaj kev poob qis heev los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam.
Nws tau hais tias "kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis ib txwm muaj cov ntawv cog lus ntev, cov khoom lag luam luv," nws hais, muab cov kab ntawv hauv qab no.
Rooj zuam
Big Tech tau dhau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los wringer tsis ntev los no, nrog kev poob siab tshiab los ntawm Amazon.com
AMZN,
tom qab Microsoft
MSFT,
Cov tsiaj ntawv
GOOGL,
Meta Platforms
META,
thiab Snap
SNAP,
nyiaj khwv tau los.
Cov kev poob no tsuas yog pib, hais tias Hartnett, muab cov duab hauv qab no:
Rooj zuam
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/250-years-of-history-is-telling-investors-to-bet-on-treasury-bonds-in-2023-bank-of-america-says- 11666958942?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo