Vim li cas cov khoom lag luam poob? Dab tsi koj yuav tsum paub txog kev lag luam dais, stagflation thiab crypto chaos

Qhov ntawd twb tau tshwm sim nyob rau xyoo 2022. Cov kev lag luam Bond tau poob hauv av raws li cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Cov Nyiaj Txiag, uas hloov pauv mus rau cov nqi, nce siab hauv cov tshuaj tiv thaiv rau kev nce nyiaj nce siab tshaj plaws hauv ntau tshaj plaub caug xyoo nrog rau kev cia siab rau kev nruj nyiaj txiag nruj los ntawm Fed. Txij li thaum S&P 500 cov ntaub ntawv kaw tseg nyob rau Lub Ib Hlis 3 lub xyoo no cov khoom lag luam tau nyob rau ntawm qhov swb uas tawm ntawm qhov loj-capitalization benchmark ntawm lub verge ntawm kev nkag mus rau dais lag luam thaj chaw.

IShares Qhov Kev Pab Nyiaj Txiag (US Aggregate Bond) ETF
AGG,
-0.43%
poob ntau dua 10% xyoo rau hnub Friday. Nws taug qab Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, uas suav nrog Treasurys, koom nrog cov ntawv cog lus, munis, qiv nyiaj rov qab thiab cov khoom muaj nqis rov qab. S&P 500
SPX,
+ 2.39%
yog qis dua 15.6% ntawm tib qhov ncab.

Qhov xwm txheej tawm mus "yuav tsis muaj qhov twg los nkaum," sau cov kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Montreal-based PGM Global, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom lub lim tiam dhau los no.

"Tsuas yog cov nyiaj khaws cia ntev ntev thiab Kev nqis peev qib qiv qiv yuav luag ib-rau-ib qho, tab sis kev muag khoom nyob rau lub sijhawm ntev Treasuries kuj tshwm sim ntau zaus nrog cov hnub poob hauv S&P 500," lawv hais.

Cov tub lag luam tab tom nrhiav kev nplij siab tau poob siab rau hnub Wednesday. Qhov txaus siab tos txais US lub Plaub Hlis tus nqi siv khoom lag luam qhia pom tias kev nce nqi txhua xyoo tau qeeb mus rau 8.3% los ntawm ntau tshaj plaub lub xyoo caum siab ntawm 8.5% hauv lub Peb Hlis, tab sis cov kws tshawb fawb tau nrhiav kev nthuav tawm qeeb dua, thiab cov kev nyeem ntawv tseem ceeb, uas strips tawm. Cov khoom noj tsis muaj zog thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob tsis zoo, pom tias qhov kev npaj txhij txog uptick txhua hli.

Qhov ntawd yog underlined stagflation ntshai.

Davis kuj tseem yog tus thawj coj saib xyuas kev lag luam ntawm Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility thiab Inflation Hedge Exchange-Traded Fund
IVOL,
+ 0.69%,
nrog kwv yees li $ 1.65 nphom hauv cov cuab tam, uas yog lub hom phiaj los ua ib qho kev tiv thaiv kev nce nyiaj tau los ruaj khov. Cov nyiaj tuav nyiaj txiag tiv thaiv kev nyab xeeb thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam rau qhov sib txawv ntawm cov paj laum luv thiab ntev, nws hais.

Tus nqi lag luam tam sim no yog "tsis txaus siab heev," nws hais tias, hauv kev xam phaj hauv xov tooj, qhia txog kev cia siab tias Fed tus paj laum nce siab yog "yuav tsim kom muaj ib puag ncig tsis txaus ntseeg," thaum nruj tsis zoo li yuav ua dab tsi los daws cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv. uas tab tom ua phem rau kev lag luam tom qab tus mob coronavirus pandemic.

Lub caij no, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam thiab cov tub luam tau sib cav txog seb lub khw muag khoom hnub Friday bounce tau pib ntawm cov txheej txheem hauv qab lossis tsuas yog ib qho bounce los ntawm oversold tej yam kev mob.

"Tom qab ib lub lim tiam ntawm kev muag khoom hnyav, tab sis nrog kev nce nqi nce siab tsuas yog nyob ntawm cov paj, thiab Fed tseem zoo li yuav mus rau 50 lub hauv paus taw tes hikes rau txhua qhov ntawm ob lub rooj sib tham tom ntej, kev ua lag luam tau npaj rau hom. Quincy Krosby, tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees ntawm LPL Financial hais.

Nws yog bounce heev. Lub Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+ 3.82%,
uas tau poob rau hauv kev lag luam dais thaum ntxov xyoo no thiab poob mus rau ze li ntawm 2 1/2-xyoo qis hauv lub lim tiam dhau los, dhia 3.8% Hnub Friday rau nws qhov loj tshaj plaws ib-hnub feem pua ​​​​nce txij thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 4, 2020. Qhov ntawd tau txiav nws lub caij nplooj zeeg txhua lub lim tiam. mus rau qhov tseem hefty 2.8%.

S&P 500 tau nce 2.4%, yuav luag ib nrab ntawm nws qhov kev poob qis txhua lub lim tiam. Qhov ntawd ua rau qhov loj-cap US tus qauv ntsuas qis qis qis dua 16.1% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv kaw thaum lub Ib Hlis thaum ntxov, tom qab xaus rau hnub Thursday tsuas yog txaj muag ntawm 20% rub rov qab uas yuav ua tau raws li cov lus txhais ntawm lub lag luam dais. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 1.47%
nce 466.36, lossis 1.7%, tawm hauv ib lub lis piam poob ntawm 2.1%.

Nyeem: Txawm tias bounce, S&P 500 hovers perilously ze rau dais lag luam. Nov yog tus lej uas suav

Thiab tag nrho peb qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb yog kev ua kis las ntev, kev poob txhua lub lis piam, nrog rau S&P 500 thiab Nasdaq txhua tus nqis rau rau lub lis piam ncaj, qhov ntev tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2011 thiab 2012, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Dow tau sau nws xya lub lis piam poob sib law liag - nws qhov ntev tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2001.

S&P 500 tseem tsis tau nkag mus rau hauv lub lag luam dais, tab sis cov kws tshuaj ntsuam pom tsis muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm ursine cwj pwm.

Raws li Jeff deGraaf, tus tsim ntawm Renaissance Macro Research, tau soj ntsuam rau hnub Wednesday, kev sib raug zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau khiav hauv 90th mus rau 100th decile, lub ntsiab lus lockstep kev ua tau zoo uas tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam feem ntau tau ua lag luam hauv kev sib koom ua ke - "ib qho ntawm cov yam ntxwv ntawm lub lag luam dais."

Thaum S&P 500 tau tsiv mus "tsis xis nyob ze" rau lub lag luam dais, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias cov khoom lag luam loj loj rub rov qab yog qhov qub thiab tshwm sim nrog ntau zaus, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais. Barron tau sau tseg tias kev lag luam Tshuag tau pom 10 dais-kev lag luam rub rov qab txij li xyoo 1950, thiab ntau yam kev kho thiab lwm yam tseem ceeb rub rov qab.

Tab sis qhov nrawm thiab qhov dav ntawm qhov kev sib tw tsis ntev los no yuav nkag siab tias yuav ua rau cov tub ua lag luam rattled, tshwj xeeb yog cov neeg uas tsis tau ntsib kev poob qis, hais Randy Frederick, tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam ntawm Schwab Center for Financial Research, hauv kev sib tham hauv xov tooj.

Qhov kev tawm tsam tau pom "txhua qhov kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam nce," nws tau sau tseg. "Qhov ntawd tsis yog kev ua lag luam ib txwm muaj" thiab tam sim no tus kab mob tau hloov pauv raws li txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag thiab nyiaj txiag nruj ntawm cov tshuaj tiv thaiv rau kev nce nqi kub.

"Nws tsis lom zem tam sim no," nws hais, tab sis "qhov no yog qhov kev lag luam tiag tiag."