Amara Txoj Cai thiab Blockchain

Vim bitcoin plaub xyoos ib nrab, ntau tus nqi tsom xam thiab kev xav tias koj pom hauv cryptosphere muaj txog rau tam sim no tended tsom rau bitcoin qhov xwm txheej.

Tsuas yog txhawm rau qhia meej tias qhov halvings yog dab tsi, dab tsi bitcoin miners ua tau yog siv lub zog suav kom siv tau cov kev lag luam, cov txheej txheem uas ntxiv cov blocks rau lub
 
 blockchain 
. Txhua zaus lawv ntxiv ib qho thaiv, cov txheej txheem ntawm bitcoin tshiab yog tsim, thiab lawv tau txais qhov khoom plig ntawd bitcoin.

Ib qho kev tshwm sim ib nrab yog thaum tus nqi zog yog halved, thiab nws tshwm sim txhua txhua 210,000 blocks, uas sib raug rau kwv yees li plaub xyoos. Qhov no tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv 2012, 2016, thiab 2020, thiab mining khoom plig tau mus los ntawm 50 BTC ib block rau 25, 12.5 thiab tam sim no 6.25.

Txog rau tam sim no, cov halvings no tau sib raug zoo nrog kev khaus khaus thiab bust hom voj voog, pib tawg loj heev nyob rau hauv nqe, tshuab-tawm saum thiab kev kho mob ntev. Txawm hais tias tau hais tias, zoom tawm daim duab thiab tag nrho cov peaks thiab troughs, exhilarating txawm lawv yog, ua ib feem ntawm kev nce mus ntxiv mus.

Cov qauv no ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo, tab sis peb yuav tsum cia siab tias qhov kev sib txuas ntawm halvings thiab spectacular nqi fluctuations yuav nyob mus ib txhis (los yog txog 2140, thaum bitcoin yuav tag nrho mined)?

Thaum pib ntawm bitcoin lub neej, nws muaj qhov siab tshaj plaws volatility, thiab yog li thawj halving ua zoo li tus nqi detonation, thiab tib yam tuaj yeem hais txog qhov xwm txheej thib ob, hauv 2016. Qhov thib peb halving yeej ua ntej tus nqi loj tab sis tsis tau. ua si tawm raws li ntau tus tau kwv yees yam tsis muaj qhov zoo siab tshaj plaws ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2021 kom pom cov xwm txheej thaum kawg ntawm 2017.

Tau kawg, peb yuav tsum coj mus rau hauv tus account qhov tsis tau pom dua los ntawm covid-19 cov lus teb uas tau khi thiab cuam tshuam lub ntiaj teb nrog neurotic quasi-communism rau ob xyoos dhau los, tab sis txawm li ntawd los, nws yuav zoo li yav tom ntej halvings yuav tsis ua si ib yam li cov. hauv
 
 bitcoin 
's ebullient thawj xyoo caum.

Nyob rau theem no hauv blockchain thev naus laus zis txoj kev loj hlob thiab kev saws me nyuam, nws yuav tsim nyog tig mus rau lub pov haum qub ntawm kev txawj ntse hu ua Amara's Law.

Lub xyoo tshiab ua ntej, Zhu Su, Co-Founder ntawm lub cryptocurrency hedge fund, Peb Arrows Capital thiab ib tug influential daim duab nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no crypto, tweeted qhov no:

"Koj lub hauv paus kev xav yuav tsum yog Amara txoj cai, tsis yog hypercyclicality

Cov thev naus laus zis tshiab tau tshaj tawm hauv kev ua haujlwm luv luv thiab underestimated nyob rau hauv ntev

2017-2019 lub sij hawm ntawm overestimation

2020-2030 lub sij hawm ntawm underestimation "

Nws kuj hu ua 2022, "xyoo ntawm kev saws me nyuam loj".

Cia li zoom rau hauv thiab tshem tawm cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb nyob ntawd, hauv Roy Amara cov lus tseem ceeb:

"Peb zoo li overestimate cov txiaj ntsig ntawm thev naus laus zis hauv lub sijhawm luv, thiab kwv yees cov txiaj ntsig hauv lub sijhawm ntev."

Roy Amara yog ib tug kws tshawb fawb hauv computer ntawm Stanford Research Institute, thiab rau qee lub sijhawm yog tus thawj coj ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm rau Lub Neej Yav Tom Ntej, Californian xav tias lub tank txuas nrog RAND Corporation.

Nws cov lus hais tau hais tias tau ua qee lub sijhawm nyob rau xyoo 1960 lossis 70s thiab tom qab ntawd tau raug hu ua Amara Txoj Cai, txawm hais tias nws yog qhov kev soj ntsuam tiag tiag. Nws tau raug xa mus thaum xav txog ntau yam tshiab thev naus laus zis, suav nrog nanotech thiab AI, thiab zoo li siv tau rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm cryptocurrencies thiab blockchain siv.

Qhov tseem ceeb, qhov nws hais yog tias nyob rau hauv lub giddy nascent theem thaum ib tug tshiab technology tshwm sim, yuav muaj boldly utopian kwv yees ntawm qhov tech yuav ua li cas, uas yog unhooked los ntawm nws, nyob rau lub sij hawm ntawd, qhov tseeb theem ntawm sophistication thiab mainstream paj.

Qhov no sib raug zoo nrog bitcoin, thaum nws cov neeg txhawb nqa thaum ntxov tau xav tsis thoob, yuav luag evangelical kev txiav txim siab txog bitcoin lub peev xwm hloov pauv, thiab tau mob siab rau tsis yog tsuas yog mining xwb tab sis kuj nthuav tawm lo lus hauv kev nthuav dav loj, txawm tias qee zaum txhais tau hais tias yuav luag. chav khoob.

Txawm hais tias qhov no tau tshwm sim, hauv cov ntsiab lus tseem tsis tau tshwm sim ntau. Bitcoin tseem nyob ntawm thaj tsam ntawm kev paub thiab raug tso tawm los ntawm feem coob, yog tias nws tau lees paub txhua yam, xws li kev dag ntxias, lossis siv rau cov neeg ua phem nkaus xwb, lossis, qhov zoo tshaj plaws, ua haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg.

Dab tsi tom qab ntawd ua raws li theem no hauv cov xwm txheej cuam tshuam, raws li Amara, yog lub sijhawm ntev nyob rau hauv-kev kwv yees, txawm tias technology matures mus rau qhov chaw uas nws yuav siv tau.

Qhov no txhais tau hais tias tsuas yog ua ntej kev hloov pauv tiag tiag, yuav muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm qhov xwm txheej: tias thev naus laus zis tau poob qis thiab tsis muaj lub hom phiaj, thaum qhov tseeb thev naus laus zis tsuas yog. lub sijhawm ntawd mus txog qhov uas nws tuaj yeem tau txais thiab pib cuam tshuam.

Nyob rau theem no, kev siv cov ntaub ntawv raug tsim tawm thiab khaws cia, tab sis nws tseem tsis tau paub dav dav tias cov kev hloov pauv tshwm sim yuav hloov cov qauv tsim yav dhau los hauv cov cheeb tsam uas muaj feem cuam tshuam rau tib neeg.

Puas yog qhov no zoo li bitcoin, lossis crypto thiab blockchain thev naus laus zis ntau dua, tam sim no? Peb yuav tsum ua tib zoo mloog, vim hais tias qhov no tej zaum yuav yog qhov inflection point ntawm uas, los ntawm lwm txoj kev blockchains ntawm tus txheej txheem tseem ceeb ntawm web3 txoj kev loj hlob, thiab bitcoin nws tus kheej raws li ib tug decoupling los ntawm central banks, muaj txiaj ntsig kev hloov pauv tshwm sim.

Vim bitcoin plaub xyoos ib nrab, ntau tus nqi tsom xam thiab kev xav tias koj pom hauv cryptosphere muaj txog rau tam sim no tended tsom rau bitcoin qhov xwm txheej.

Tsuas yog txhawm rau qhia meej tias qhov halvings yog dab tsi, dab tsi bitcoin miners ua tau yog siv lub zog suav kom siv tau cov kev lag luam, cov txheej txheem uas ntxiv cov blocks rau lub
 
 blockchain 
. Txhua zaus lawv ntxiv ib qho thaiv, cov txheej txheem ntawm bitcoin tshiab yog tsim, thiab lawv tau txais qhov khoom plig ntawd bitcoin.

Ib qho kev tshwm sim ib nrab yog thaum tus nqi zog yog halved, thiab nws tshwm sim txhua txhua 210,000 blocks, uas sib raug rau kwv yees li plaub xyoos. Qhov no tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv 2012, 2016, thiab 2020, thiab mining khoom plig tau mus los ntawm 50 BTC ib block rau 25, 12.5 thiab tam sim no 6.25.

Txog rau tam sim no, cov halvings no tau sib raug zoo nrog kev khaus khaus thiab bust hom voj voog, pib tawg loj heev nyob rau hauv nqe, tshuab-tawm saum thiab kev kho mob ntev. Txawm hais tias tau hais tias, zoom tawm daim duab thiab tag nrho cov peaks thiab troughs, exhilarating txawm lawv yog, ua ib feem ntawm kev nce mus ntxiv mus.

Cov qauv no ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo, tab sis peb yuav tsum cia siab tias qhov kev sib txuas ntawm halvings thiab spectacular nqi fluctuations yuav nyob mus ib txhis (los yog txog 2140, thaum bitcoin yuav tag nrho mined)?

Thaum pib ntawm bitcoin lub neej, nws muaj qhov siab tshaj plaws volatility, thiab yog li thawj halving ua zoo li tus nqi detonation, thiab tib yam tuaj yeem hais txog qhov xwm txheej thib ob, hauv 2016. Qhov thib peb halving yeej ua ntej tus nqi loj tab sis tsis tau. ua si tawm raws li ntau tus tau kwv yees yam tsis muaj qhov zoo siab tshaj plaws ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2021 kom pom cov xwm txheej thaum kawg ntawm 2017.

Tau kawg, peb yuav tsum coj mus rau hauv tus account qhov tsis tau pom dua los ntawm covid-19 cov lus teb uas tau khi thiab cuam tshuam lub ntiaj teb nrog neurotic quasi-communism rau ob xyoos dhau los, tab sis txawm li ntawd los, nws yuav zoo li yav tom ntej halvings yuav tsis ua si ib yam li cov. hauv
 
 bitcoin 
's ebullient thawj xyoo caum.

Nyob rau theem no hauv blockchain thev naus laus zis txoj kev loj hlob thiab kev saws me nyuam, nws yuav tsim nyog tig mus rau lub pov haum qub ntawm kev txawj ntse hu ua Amara's Law.

Lub xyoo tshiab ua ntej, Zhu Su, Co-Founder ntawm lub cryptocurrency hedge fund, Peb Arrows Capital thiab ib tug influential daim duab nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no crypto, tweeted qhov no:

"Koj lub hauv paus kev xav yuav tsum yog Amara txoj cai, tsis yog hypercyclicality

Cov thev naus laus zis tshiab tau tshaj tawm hauv kev ua haujlwm luv luv thiab underestimated nyob rau hauv ntev

2017-2019 lub sij hawm ntawm overestimation

2020-2030 lub sij hawm ntawm underestimation "

Nws kuj hu ua 2022, "xyoo ntawm kev saws me nyuam loj".

Cia li zoom rau hauv thiab tshem tawm cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb nyob ntawd, hauv Roy Amara cov lus tseem ceeb:

"Peb zoo li overestimate cov txiaj ntsig ntawm thev naus laus zis hauv lub sijhawm luv, thiab kwv yees cov txiaj ntsig hauv lub sijhawm ntev."

Roy Amara yog ib tug kws tshawb fawb hauv computer ntawm Stanford Research Institute, thiab rau qee lub sijhawm yog tus thawj coj ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm rau Lub Neej Yav Tom Ntej, Californian xav tias lub tank txuas nrog RAND Corporation.

Nws cov lus hais tau hais tias tau ua qee lub sijhawm nyob rau xyoo 1960 lossis 70s thiab tom qab ntawd tau raug hu ua Amara Txoj Cai, txawm hais tias nws yog qhov kev soj ntsuam tiag tiag. Nws tau raug xa mus thaum xav txog ntau yam tshiab thev naus laus zis, suav nrog nanotech thiab AI, thiab zoo li siv tau rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm cryptocurrencies thiab blockchain siv.

Qhov tseem ceeb, qhov nws hais yog tias nyob rau hauv lub giddy nascent theem thaum ib tug tshiab technology tshwm sim, yuav muaj boldly utopian kwv yees ntawm qhov tech yuav ua li cas, uas yog unhooked los ntawm nws, nyob rau lub sij hawm ntawd, qhov tseeb theem ntawm sophistication thiab mainstream paj.

Qhov no sib raug zoo nrog bitcoin, thaum nws cov neeg txhawb nqa thaum ntxov tau xav tsis thoob, yuav luag evangelical kev txiav txim siab txog bitcoin lub peev xwm hloov pauv, thiab tau mob siab rau tsis yog tsuas yog mining xwb tab sis kuj nthuav tawm lo lus hauv kev nthuav dav loj, txawm tias qee zaum txhais tau hais tias yuav luag. chav khoob.

Txawm hais tias qhov no tau tshwm sim, hauv cov ntsiab lus tseem tsis tau tshwm sim ntau. Bitcoin tseem nyob ntawm thaj tsam ntawm kev paub thiab raug tso tawm los ntawm feem coob, yog tias nws tau lees paub txhua yam, xws li kev dag ntxias, lossis siv rau cov neeg ua phem nkaus xwb, lossis, qhov zoo tshaj plaws, ua haujlwm tsis txaus ntseeg.

Dab tsi tom qab ntawd ua raws li theem no hauv cov xwm txheej cuam tshuam, raws li Amara, yog lub sijhawm ntev nyob rau hauv-kev kwv yees, txawm tias technology matures mus rau qhov chaw uas nws yuav siv tau.

Qhov no txhais tau hais tias tsuas yog ua ntej kev hloov pauv tiag tiag, yuav muaj qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntawm qhov xwm txheej: tias thev naus laus zis tau poob qis thiab tsis muaj lub hom phiaj, thaum qhov tseeb thev naus laus zis tsuas yog. lub sijhawm ntawd mus txog qhov uas nws tuaj yeem tau txais thiab pib cuam tshuam.

Nyob rau theem no, kev siv cov ntaub ntawv raug tsim tawm thiab khaws cia, tab sis nws tseem tsis tau paub dav dav tias cov kev hloov pauv tshwm sim yuav hloov cov qauv tsim yav dhau los hauv cov cheeb tsam uas muaj feem cuam tshuam rau tib neeg.

Puas yog qhov no zoo li bitcoin, lossis crypto thiab blockchain thev naus laus zis ntau dua, tam sim no? Peb yuav tsum ua tib zoo mloog, vim hais tias qhov no tej zaum yuav yog qhov inflection point ntawm uas, los ntawm lwm txoj kev blockchains ntawm tus txheej txheem tseem ceeb ntawm web3 txoj kev loj hlob, thiab bitcoin nws tus kheej raws li ib tug decoupling los ntawm central banks, muaj txiaj ntsig kev hloov pauv tshwm sim.

Tau qhov twg los: https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/amaras-law-and-the-blockchain/