Raws li lub zej zog cryptocurrency mob siab rau tos lub teeb ntsuab ntsuab rau Bitcoin (BTC) qhov chaw ETFs, kev tshuaj xyuas los ntawm CryptoQuant's MAC.D, qhia rau X (yav tas los Twitter), muab kev pom dav dav ntawm ob qhov xwm txheej tshwm sim raws li cov ntaub ntawv xov xwm. Cov xwm txheej no tsis yog tsuas yog tso lub teeb pom kev ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm txhawb nqa thiab qib kev tawm tsam tab sis kuj tseem muaj kev nkag siab zoo rau cov tub lag luam thiab cov tub ua lag luam taug kev mus rau kev lag luam crypto tsis hloov pauv thaum Bitcoin ETF buzz.
Bullish Scenario: Muaj peev xwm overheating ntawm $48.5K
Hauv qhov kev cia siab zoo uas tau teev tseg los ntawm MA.D, Bitcoin tus nqi nce mus rau $ 48.5K tau pom tias yog qhov tseem ceeb. Nyob rau theem no, qhov sib faib ntawm 1D rau 1W cov neeg tuav tuaj yeem tshaj 8%, qhia tias muaj peev xwm ua lag luam overheated. Qhov no overheating, nyob rau hauv lem, yuav pab raws li ib tug precursor rau ib tug kho theem. $ 48.5K cim sawv cev rau tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm chav tsev ntawm 2-3 xyoo tuav, ntxiv qhov hnyav rau qib no raws li qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev tiv thaiv.
Cov tub luam raug qhia kom ua tib zoo saib xyuas qhov pib no vim tias nws tuaj yeem muab kev nkag siab tseem ceeb rau hauv kev ua lag luam kev ua haujlwm kom muaj zog nce siab. Qhov xwm txheej qhia tau hais tias mus txog qib no yuav ua rau muaj kev kho, qhia txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev ceev faj txog kev ua kom lub ntsej muag muaj zog los ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm Bitcoin ETF pom zoo.
Bearish Scenario: Txhawb Qib ntawm $ 34K thiab $ 30K
Nyob rau sab ntxeev, MAC.D taw qhia cov qauv keeb kwm qhov twg Bitcoin tau ntsib qhov nruab nrab poob ntawm 2-30% thaum lub sij hawm nce siab. Nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev kho, $ 34K thiab $ 30K raug txheeb xyuas raws li qib kev txhawb nqa tseem ceeb. Tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm chav tsev rau ntau lub sijhawm tuav - 1W txog 3M, 18M rau 2Y tuav ntawm $ 34K, thiab 3 txog 12M tuav ntawm $ 30K - kos cov qib no raws li muaj peev xwm tiv thaiv kev poob qis.
MAC.D xaus qhov kev tshuaj xyuas los ntawm kev hais txog qhov nce kev pheej hmoo thiab tsis paub tseeb raws li Bitcoin ETF kev pom zoo kev txiav txim siab mus txog. Qhov kev txiav txim siab yuav tshwm sim ntxiv ib txheej ntawm qhov nyuaj thiab muaj peev xwm ua lag luam turbulence. Kev ceev faj tau tawm tswv yim, thiab cov tub ua lag luam raug nquahu kom ua tib zoo ntsuas lawv qhov kev pheej hmoo siab thiab raug rau kev ua lag luam cov lus teb rau Bitcoin qhov chaw ETF kev txiav txim siab.
Txog tam sim no, Bitcoin yog tus nqi ntawm $ 46,715, xav txog 2.88% nce hauv 24 teev dhau los. Lub 24-teev trading ntim tau nce los ntawm 16.87%, mus txog $ 38,054,654,409. Qhov kev ua kom siab siab no qhia txog kev cia siab thiab kev cia siab nyob ib puag ncig qhov kev pom zoo ntawm Bitcoin ETFs. Cov tub luam raug txhawb kom ceev faj thiab xav txog cov qib kev txhawb nqa no ua cov cim tseem ceeb rau kev yuav khoom lossis cov tswv yim tiv thaiv thaum lub sij hawm kho kev lag luam.
ETF Sponsor Nqi thiab cov ntaub ntawv tsis ntev los no
Hauv cov kauj ruam kawg ua rau muaj peev xwm Bitcoin qhov chaw ETF pom zoo, ntau tus neeg ua si loj, suav nrog BlackRock, VanEck, Ark Invest / 21Shares, WisdomTree, Fidelity, Invesco, thiab Valkyrie, tau xa cov ntawv hloov kho S-1. Cov ntaub ntawv no, qhov tseem ceeb, suav nrog cov ntsiab lus hais txog tus nqi txhawb nqa - ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm Bitcoin ETF qauv.
- BlackRock teeb tsa nws tus nqi txhawb nqa ntawm 0.3%, nrog qhov pib txo qis rau 0.2% rau thawj xyoo lossis txog thaum ETF nce txog $ 5 nphom hauv cov cuab tam.
- VanEck opts rau kev sib tw 0.25% tus nqi mus tas li.
- Txawj Ntse xaiv tus nqi siab dua 0.5%.
- Ark/21 Shares txo nws cov nqi los ntawm 0.8% mus rau 0.25%, tsis muaj nqi rau thawj rau lub hlis lossis txog thaum ETF hits $ 1 billion hauv cov cuab tam.
- Grayscale txo nws cov nqi los ntawm 2% mus rau 1.5%, aiming los hloov nws cov flagship bitcoin kev ntseeg siab rau hauv ETF.
Cov ntaub ntawv no tuaj yeem ua rau cov neeg thov xa cov ntawv hloov kho ntawm lawv daim ntawv 19b-4, nrog cov ntaub ntawv tshiab los ntawm Grayscale Investments, Valkyrie, ARK 21Shares, Invesco, thiab lwm yam. Lub Securities thiab Exchange Commission (SEC) tam sim no tuav lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev txiav txim siab kom pom zoo 19b-4 cov ntaub ntawv, muaj peev xwm paving txoj hauv kev rau Bitcoin chaw ETF trading hnub tom qab pom zoo.
Raws li lub zej zog crypto tuav nws txoj kev sib sau ua pa, cia siab tias yuav txiav txim siab txog kev tswj hwm, qhov tshwm sim tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau thaj chaw ua lag luam cryptocurrency. Cov neeg ua lag luam thiab cov tub lag luam zoo ib yam yog npaj rau kev ua lag luam muaj peev xwm hloov pauv, riam phom nrog kev nkag siab los ntawm MA.D cov kev tshuaj xyuas thiab cov kev txhim kho tshiab kawg hauv cov ntaub ntawv ETF.
Tau qhov twg los: https://blockchainreporter.net/what-happens-if-bitcoin-etf-gets-the-green-light-in-depth-insights-and-analysis/