Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Asmeskas xav tias yuav nce cov nyiaj tseem ceeb hauv lub rooj sib tham tom ntej rau hnub Wednesday thiab JPMorgan tus kws xam nyiaj txiag Michael Feroli ntseeg tias kev nce nqi yuav thawb Fed kom nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus (bps). Lub lim tiam dhau los, CME Group cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog kev ua lag luam tus nqi hauv 95% lub caij nyoog uas Asmeskas yuav pom 50 bps tus nqi nce lub hlis no. Txawm hais tias, thaum qee tus xav tias yuav muaj hawkish Fed, qee tus ntseeg tias US central bank yuav ua tsis ncaj ncees yog tias kev lag luam tsis zoo.
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb shudder Nrog Kev tsom mus rau Fed's Next Rate Hike - JPMorgan Economist Cia siab tias yuav nce 75 bps
Cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab cov lag luam cryptocurrency poob qis heev rau hnub Monday, raws li hnub tau suav tias yog ib qho ntawm cov ntshav pib pib rau lub lim tiam ntev. CNBC's Scott Schnipper hais tias Hnub Monday tias "S&P 500 tam sim no nyob rau hauv kev lag luam dais, raws li S&P Dow Jones Indices."
Cov hlau muaj txiaj ntsig zoo li kub thiab nyiaj poob rau hauv tus nqi ib yam nkaus, raws li kub tus nqi ib ooj poob 2.67% thiab nyiaj poob 3.58%. Tag nrho crypto kev lag luam poob 18% thaum lub sijhawm hnub Monday thiab BTC poob qis dua $21K. Tam sim no, txhua lub qhov muag yog nyob rau ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg (FOMC) lub rooj sib tham uas cov tswv cuab ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve System yuav tsum tau nce qib ntawm tsoomfwv cov nyiaj.
Kev nce nruab nrab tuaj yeem nyob nruab nrab ntawm 25 txog 50 bps. Fed tuaj yeem mus siab li 75 txog 100 bps thaum lub rooj sib tham tom ntej thiab ib txhia twb kwv yees 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus yog nyob rau hauv daim npav. Lub lim tiam dhau los, CME Group cov ntaub ntawv tau qhia txog kev ua lag luam tus nqi hauv a 95% lub caij nyoog tias Fed yuav nce tus nqi ntsuas los ntawm 50 bps. Txawm li cas los xij, JPMorgan tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Michael Feroli xav tias qhov nce 75 bps tab tom los thiab 100 bps kuj ua tau.
Feroli hais rau Cov neeg siv khoom hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Monday tias "kev poob qis hauv kev cia siab nyiaj txiag ntev dua" tuaj yeem thawb Fed kom nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau hnub Wednesday. "Ib tug yuav xav paub seb qhov kev xav tsis thoob tiag tiag yuav yog hiking 100bp, ib yam dab tsi peb xav tias tsis yog qhov tsis tseem ceeb," Feroli ntxiv.
Goldman Sachs Economists kwv yees 75 bps Hike - JPMorgan tus kws tshaj lij Marko Kolanovic Xav tias Dovish Surprise tuaj yeem tshwm sim
Goldman Sachs economists pom zoo nrog Feroli li lawv ntseeg 75 bps hike yuav zoo li yuav tshaj tawm ntawm lub rooj sib tham FOMC. "Peb qhov kev kwv yees Fed tau raug kho kom suav nrog 75 bps hikes nyob rau lub Rau Hli thiab Lub Xya Hli," Goldman kws lag luam tau piav qhia hnub Monday.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Goldman Sachs tau sau tseg rau cov tub ua lag luam ntxiv:
Peb cia siab tias ob qhov kev nce ntxiv hauv 2023 txog 3.75-4%, ua raws li ib qho kev txiav hauv 2024 mus rau 3.5-3.75%. Peb cia siab tias yuav nce 50bp nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli, ua raws li 25bp nce hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis thiab Kaum Ob Hlis, rau qhov tsis hloov pauv tus nqi ntawm 3.25-3.5%. Peb cia siab tias qhov nruab nrab qhov taw qhia qhia 3.25-3.5% thaum kawg-2022.
Lub caij no, txawm tias Feroli qhov kev kwv yees 75 bps, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic: koj puas xav tau ntau tus thwjtim? hais rau cov xov xwm tias Asmeskas yuav zoo li zam kev poob nyiaj txiag. Tus kws tshaj lij ntawm JPMorgan Chase & Co. tau piav qhia tias Fed tuaj yeem ua dovish mus tom ntej vim kev vwm hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab cov khw lag luam ib yam nkaus.
"Friday lub zog CPI luam tawm uas ua rau muaj kev nce siab hauv cov txiaj ntsig, nrog rau kev muag khoom hauv crypto thaum lub asthiv, yog qhov hnyav rau cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav thiab ua rau kev lag luam qis dua," Kolanovic cov lus ceeb toom rau cov neeg siv khoom ntxaws hnub Monday. "Txawm li cas los xij, peb ntseeg tias tus nqi kev lag luam rov qab mus dhau deb thiab Fed yuav ua rau muaj kev xav tsis thoob txog qhov tam sim no tus nqi rau hauv nkhaus," JPMorgan tus kws tshaj lij ntxiv.
Koj xav li cas txog lub rooj sib tham FOMC yav tom ntej thiab kev nce qib tom ntej? Koj puas xav tias nws yuav yog nruab nrab lossis nruj? Los yog koj puas xav tias ib qho kev xav tsis thoob nyob hauv daim npav? Qhia rau peb paub koj xav li cas txog cov ncauj lus no hauv cov lus hauv qab no.
Duab Credit: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Cov Lus Qhia
Disclaimer: Kab lus no tsuas yog rau kev ua ntaub ntawv xwb. Nws tsis yog qhov ncaj qha lossis kev thov rau qhov kev yuav lossis muag, lossis kev pom zoo lossis kev pom zoo ntawm ib yam khoom, kev pabcuam, lossis tuam txhab. Bitcoin.com tsis muab peev, peev nyiaj, cai lij choj, lossis tswv yim nyiaj txiag. Tsis yog cov tuam txhab lossis cov neeg sau ntawv ua lub luag haujlwm, ncaj qha lossis tsis ncaj rau, rau ib qho kev puas tsuaj lossis poob lossis ua rau raug iab liam los ntawm lossis kev sib txuas nrog kev siv lossis kev cia siab rau qee cov ntsiab lus, khoom muag lossis kev pabcuam tau hais hauv tsab xov xwm no.
Tau qhov twg los: https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-economist-expects-the-fed-to-hike-benchmark-rate-by-75-bps-as-global-markets-bleed/