Kev lag luam speculation uas yog Bitcoin tau nce mus rau qhov tseem ceeb rau ntau yam, tab sis nws tsis yog qhov tsis tsim nyog hais tias cov nyiaj daus las, euro, yen, phaus, yuan (lossis lub npe koj lub nroog cov txiaj) tau ua haujlwm raws li cov neeg tshaj lij tshaj lij cryptocurrency. Raws li kev tsis ntseeg siab txog tsoomfwv tau tshaj tawm "fiat" nyiaj, Bitcoin tau muaj ntau dua li nws hnub nyob rau hauv lub hnub.
Ntawm qhov kev xav tias tsoomfwv cov cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tsis tuaj yeem ntseeg tau los saib xyuas lawv cov txiaj ntsig, Bitcoin tau raug suav tias yog hloov pauv. Txij li tag nrho cov khoom siv ntawm lub cryptocurrency raug txwv xws li tias nws tus neeg xa khoom tsis tuaj yeem "luam" ntau dua ntawm daim ntawv nyiaj ntiag tug, supposedly Bitcoin yog qhov kawg nyiaj txiag hedge. Los yog li ntawd nws tau hais, los yog xav.
Nws muaj kev nyab xeeb los hais tias kev tsis ntseeg txog Bitcoin yog nce thaum lub sijhawm uas tus nqi ntawm "npib" tau poob. Tom qab ntaus txhua lub sijhawm siab ntawm $ 68,000 lub Kaum Ib Hlis kawg, tus nqi tau ntau dua li ib nrab. Raws li qhov no tau sau tseg, ib tus tuaj yeem yuav tau rau $ 28,000.
Ib txhia yuav yws tias qhov no tsis yog yuav tsum tau. Tshwj xeeb raws li tsoomfwv kev ntsuas kev nce nqi xws li CPI tau sau npe ntau xyoo kaum xyoo, Bitcoin yuav tsum yog tias muaj dab tsi tshwm sim. Thaum kev nce nqi rov qab nws lub taub hau dab tuag, cov tub ua lag luam pawg rau hauv hedges; yog li ntawd muab lawv li. Los yog qee qhov xav txog.
Nyob rau hauv cov kab no, kub tau ntev tau saib raws li kev nce nqi hedge par zoo. Yog hais tias qhov kev txawj ntse ntawm cov kub yuav tsum tau ntseeg, qhov nce nqi uas ib txhia deem inflation instigate ib tug maj mus rau hauv cov hlau daj uas muaj nyob rau hauv ib tug muaj kev ruaj ntseg haven ntawm xaiv tawm tsam nce nqi; cov tub ua lag luam ib zaug rushing rau kub txoj kev nyab xeeb ntawm txoj kev mus twv nws.
Qhov zoo li tsis meej ntawm no yog vim li cas Bitcoin tsis tau ua tiav kub. Daim duab qhia tias cov khoom siv kub tseem nce mus txog li 2% hauv ib xyoos, thaum cov khoom ntawm Bitcoin yuav tsis tshaj 21 lab. Dab tsi muab?
Huag zoo, cov lus nug rhetorical no hais nrov nrov rau ntau npaum li cas kev nce nqi thiab kub yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg. Raws li lub npe ntawm cov khoom no ua rau dawb, cov neeg uas xav kom Bitcoin ua cov kub, lossis zoo dua, tshaj kub raws li kev nce nyiaj nce siab, tsis muaj qhov qhia txog kub, lossis rau qhov teeb meem, kev nce nqi nws tus kheej.
Yuav pib, nws muaj txiaj ntsig zoo rau kev ntxhov siab rau pem hauv ntej yam tsis tau hais txog hauv txhua qhov kev sib tham ntawm kev nce nqi: Nws tsis yog nce nqi. Muaj ib tug loj, loj qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi nce thiab nce nqi. Txhawm rau kom nkag siab qhov tseeb no zoo dua, xav txog qhov tsis ntev los no ntawm tus menyuam mos mis. Vim tias nws tsis txaus, cov me nyuam tshaib plab txaus siab them ntau ntau rau nws tam sim no. Kev nce nqi? Tsis yog tsawg kawg. Yog tias cov niam txiv tau them peb npaug ntawm qhov lawv tau siv los them rau cov qauv kim uas twb muaj lawm, qhov ntawd txhais tau tias lawv muaj nyiaj tsawg dua los yuav lwm yam khoom. Tus nqi nce los ntawm lawv lub npe heev teeb liab poob nqi rau lwm yam khoom.
Inflation yog ib tug poob ntawm tus nqi ntawm ib tug txiaj, lub sij hawm. Tus nqi nce yog qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev nce nqi, lossis zoo dua, tuaj yeem yog qhov tshwm sim. Tab sis lawv tsis yog inflation nws tus kheej. Kom xav tias nce nqi ua kev nce nqi yog qhov sib npaug ntawm kev lees paub tias txoj kev ntub dej ua rau nag. Kev ua txhaum yog thim rov qab. Nres thiab xav txog qhov no hauv kev xav txog Bitcoin, kub, thiab nyiaj txiag hedges.
Tshwj xeeb, nres thiab xav txog qhov kev nce nqi tiag tiag yog nyob rau hauv kev sim nkag siab tias vim li cas Bitcoin tau poob qis heev ntawm qhov muaj ntau yam "kev nce nqi". Yuav ua li cas ntawm no? Vim li cas ho tsis yeej kub cov khoom uas txuas ntxiv mus?
Hais tias lo lus nug raug nug hais rau ib qho kev nkag siab yuam kev ntawm kub nws tus kheej. Kom meej meej, kub tsis nce raws li kev nce nqi; es kub sawv is lub teeb liab of kev nce nqi. Thaum cov nyiaj poob qis, kub qhia qhov tsis muaj zog. Kub sawv IS kev nce nqi.
Yuav kom nkag siab yog vim li cas, nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb kom nkag siab tias tus nqi ntawm kub nws tus kheej tsis txav mus. Rov ua qhov tseeb yav dhau los ib zaug ntxiv. Kub yog qhov tsis tu ncua. Thiab nws yog qhov tas li vim muaj cov khoom lag luam tshwj xeeb / ntws cov yam ntxwv xws li nce hauv cov khoom lossis kev thov rau cov hlau daj tsis txav nws tus nqi. Muab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, kub tsis nce thaum qhov nce nqi-ntshai pawg rau hauv cov hlau. Kub tus nqi raws li kev nce nqi hedge yog rooted nyob rau hauv qhov tseem ceeb qhov tseeb hais tias nws tus nqi tsis txav mus.
Ib txhia yuav co taub hau thiab hais tias kub yog volatile heev. Nws yog $ 300 / ounce hauv 2002, tab sis $ 1840 / ounce hauv 2022. Qhov ntawd yog qhov kev lees paub yuam kev. Thaum tus nqi ntawm kub txav, nws yog qhov tseeb tus nqi ntawm cov nyiaj nce lossis nqis, tsis yog hlau nws tus kheej. Kub tseem yog qhov qub dua, thiab vim tias nws qhov txiaj ntsig tsawg kawg cuam tshuam los ntawm txhua yam, nws yog qhov teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws ntawm qhov txiaj ntsig tau nce lossis nqis.
Qhov kub ntawd tsis muaj zog hais lus rau vim li cas nws yog qhov nyiaj txiag hedge qhov twg Bitcoin tsis yog. Kub tshaj nws qhov kev xav-yuav hloov dua tshiab vim tias kev hloov pauv hauv nws cov nqe lus tseem ceeb yog ib txwm muaj thiab txhua qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov txiaj ntsig uas nws raug nqi. Yog hais tias tus duas raug devalued, kub tus nqi nyob rau hauv duas las tseem yuav rov hais dua qhov tseeb no. Thiab vice versa.
Txhua yam uas tsis piav txog Bitcoin, lossis rau qhov teeb meem ntawd, ntau yam cryptocurrencies. Lawv tsis yog cov txiaj ntsig rau ib yam. Lawv tsuas yog speculations. Kev thov tsis twv nyiaj kub ntau dua li qhov tsis muaj kev thov thawb tus nqi qis. Kub xwb is. Hloov pauv, Bitcoin tus nqi yog qhov xav tau txiav txim siab, lossis kev lag luam txiav txim siab. Puas muaj kev thov rau nws ntawm $ 68,000, $ 28,000, $ 2,800, lossis npe koj tus nqi? Muaj qhov sib txawv loj, txawm tias nws yog ib qho uas feem ntau tsis tau xav txog. Lawm, Bitcoin tau poob thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog yav tom ntej. Thaum tib neeg ntshai lawv tsis twv ntau yam dab tsi.
Kub tsis twv vim kub yog qhov tseeb. Nws tseem yog qhov tsis tu ncua; nws tus nqi ib qho kev xav ntawm qhov kev taw qhia ntawm tus duas. Nws yog qhov kawg nyiaj txiag hedge vim nws tsis txav nce lossis nqis txhua.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2022/05/20/if-you-expected-bitcoin-to-beat-gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-you-understand-neither- kub-tsis yog-inflation/