Raws li qhov nyuam qhuav luam tawm Capitulation Confluence Model, tam sim no theem ntawm lub Bitcoin kev ua lag luam zoo ib yam li qhov kawg ntawm tag nrho 3 keeb kwm dais lag luam. Yog tias qhov no yog qhov tseeb, BTC yuav sai sai pib lub tsheb tshiab. Ntxiv mus, qhov no tseem yog ib feem ntawm kev nyeem ntawv los ntawm qhov taw qhia ntawm cov saw hlau: Realized Price.
Txoj Kev Npaj C yog tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam cryptocurrency uas paub txog kev tshaj tawm cov qauv txiav-ntug uas sib txuas ntau yam kev qhia thiab kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov saw hlau. Rov qab rau lub Tsib Hlis, BeInCrypto sau tau txog nws Confluence Floor Model, uas yuav tsum tau qhia tus nqi hauv qab no uas tus nqi BTC yuav tsis poob. Hmoov tsis zoo, tsuas yog ib hlis tom qab, nws tau pom tias tus qauv ua tsis tiav, thiab qhov loj tshaj plaws cryptocurrency poob qis dua qhov uas yuav tsum yog "pem teb."
Capitulation Confluence Model nyeem ntawv
Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam tus qauv tshiab hu ua Capitulation Confluence Model ua ke 3 qhov ntsuas ntawm cov saw hlau: Paub Loss, Network Cost Basis Hloov, thiab SOPR. Daim duab muab los ntawm lawv cov kev sib xyaw ua ke qhia tias Bitcoin yog hnub no nyob rau hauv qhov chaw tsis zoo ntawm qhov ntsuas tshiab. Keeb kwm, thaj chaw no tau raug cuam tshuam nrog lub sijhawm ntawm macro hauv qab hauv BTC tus nqi thiab qhov txuas ntxiv tom ntej.
Hauv kab ntawv hauv qab no, peb pom tias tam sim no qhov ntsuas Capitulation Confluence Model tau nyob hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo 4 zaug:
- Thaum kawg ntawm 2011: BTC hauv qab ntawm $ 2.05
- Nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov 2015: lub BTC downed ntawm $164
- Thaum lub sij hawm tig ntawm 2018-2019: BTC hauv qab ntawm $ 3148
- tam sim no thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022: BTC hauv qab ntawm $ 17,600
Ntxiv mus, feem ntau (tshwj tsis yog xyoo 2011) kev nkag mus rau hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo tau cuam tshuam nrog kev poob qis hauv BTC tus nqi, ua rau lub hauv qab macro. Qhov no tau ua raws li los ntawm ob peb lub hlis ntawm tsub zuj zuj. Raws li tus kws tshuaj ntsuam suav, nws tau siv sijhawm 112 hnub hauv 2011, 62 hnub hauv 2015, thiab 113 hnub hauv 2018-2019, raws li.
Qhov nruab nrab ntawm peb lub sijhawm keeb kwm no, peb tau txais 96 hnub, tom qab ntawd Bitcoin tau xaus kev ua lag luam thiab pib ua lag luam bull tshiab. Plan C ntxiv tias tam sim no capitulation, raws li Capitulation Confluence Model, twb tau kav 65 hnub. Yog li, nws twb tau siv sijhawm ntev dua li lub sijhawm sib thooj hauv 2015. Ntxiv mus, tsuas muaj 31 hnub, lossis ib hlis, sab laug kom sib npaug ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm lub sijhawm keeb kwm yav dhau los.
Ib qho ntawm thawj tus neeg tawm tswv yim ntawm Capitulation Confluence Model yog nws tus kws sau nws tus kheej. Ob peb feeb tom qab, nws tau tshaj tawm ib qho tweet uas nws tau hais tias lub sijhawm capitulation qhia los ntawm qhov ntsuas yog lub sijhawm zoo tshaj plaws rau "tsuas yog DCAing txhua hnub."
Tau qhov twg los: https://beincrypto.com/capitulation-confluence-model-bitcoin-btc-is-in-phase-of-triple-capitulation/