Lub siab me me ntawm kev cia siab tshwm sim ntawm Bitcoin (BTC) cov tub ua lag luam tom qab Lub Rau Hli 18 poob mus rau $ 17,600 dhau los ua qhov nyob deb dua thiab cov qauv nce mus txog thaum ntxov mus txog $ 21,000 hauv lub sijhawm luv.
Tsis ntev los no cov lus tsis zoo los ntawm cov neeg tsim cai lij choj txuas ntxiv txwv cov neeg ua lag luam optimism. Hauv kev xam phaj nrog Cointelegraph, Swiss National Bank (SNB) tus thawj coj Thomas Muser tau hais tias kev tswj hwm nyiaj txiag tsis txaus ntseeg (DeFi) ecosystem yuav tsum tsis muaj yog tias cov cai tswj nyiaj txiag tam sim no raug siv hauv kev lag luam crypto.
Ib tsab xov xwm luam tawm nyob rau hauv Cov Neeg Txhua Hnub thaum Lub Rau Hli 26 tau hais txog Terra (LUNA), tam sim no hloov lub npe Terra Classic (LUNC), kev sib tsoo network thiab tus kws tshaj lij blockchain hauv zos Yifan Nws xa mus rau crypto raws li lub tswv yim Ponzi. Thaum nug los ntawm Cointelegraph kom qhia meej cov lus nyob rau lub Rau Hli 27, Yifan Nws tau hais tias "txhua yam tsis raug cai cryptocurrencies suav nrog Bitcoin yog Ponzi schemes raws li kuv nkag siab."
Thaum Lub Rau Hli 24, Sopnendu Mohanty tus thawj coj fintech ntawm Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) tau cog lus tias yuav "ua phem thiab tsis txaus ntseeg" ntawm ib qho "tus cwj pwm phem" los ntawm kev lag luam cryptocurrency.
Thaum kawg, Bitcoin tub ua lag luam ntsib kev xav sib xyaw vim qee tus xav tias hauv qab yog nyob rau hauv thiab $ 20,000 yog kev txhawb nqa. Lub caij no, lwm tus ntshai qhov cuam tshuam uas kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo. Vim li no, cov tub lag luam yuav tsum txheeb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam derivatives kom nkag siab yog tias cov tub luam raug nqi siab dua qhov kev poob qis.
Bitcoin yav tom ntej qhia txog kev sib npaug ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom
Cov khw muag khoom lag luam feem ntau zam txhua lub hlis tom ntej vim tias lawv cov nqi sib txawv los ntawm cov chaw lag luam niaj hnub ntawm Coinbase, Bitstamp thiab Kraken. Txawm li cas los xij, cov no yog cov kws tshaj lij cov tub lag luam nyiam cov cuab yeej raws li lawv zam qhov kev hloov pauv nyiaj txiag ntawm cov ntawv cog lus perpetual.
Cov ntawv cog lus tas mus li no feem ntau yog pauv ntawm tus nqi me me kom pom kev lag luam vim tias cov tub ua lag luam xav tau nyiaj ntau dua los tuav qhov kev sib hais haum. Yog li ntawd, yav tom ntej yuav tsum pauv ntawm 5% mus rau 10% txhua xyoo tus nqi hauv kev lag luam noj qab haus huv. Ib qho yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias qhov no tsis yog tshwj xeeb rau kev lag luam crypto.
Thaum twg qhov ntsuas no ploj mus lossis hloov tsis zoo, qhov no yog qhov ceeb toom, tus chij liab liab qhia txog qhov xwm txheej hu ua backwardation. Qhov tseeb hais tias tus nqi nruab nrab NW nyuam qhuav kov qhov chaw tsis zoo thaum Bitcoin pauv mus rau $ 17,600 yog qhov zoo kawg.
Txawm hais tias tam sim no tuav tus nqi qis kawg nkaus (tus nqi pib), kev ua lag luam tau khaws qhov kev xav tau sib npaug ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom.
Txhawm rau tshem tawm cov khoom ntiag tug tshwj xeeb rau cov cuab yeej yav tom ntej, cov tub lag luam yuav tsum txheeb xyuas cov kev xaiv Bitcoin kev lag luam. Piv txwv li, 25% delta skew qhia thaum Bitcoin whales thiab arbitrage desks yog overcharge rau downside los yog upside tiv thaiv.
Thaum lub sij hawm poob lag luam, cov kev xaiv cov tub ua lag luam muab qhov sib txawv ntau dua rau tus nqi sib tsoo, ua rau qhov taw qhia skew nce siab tshaj 12%. Ntawm qhov tod tes, a Kev lag luam dav dav FOMO induces qhov tsis zoo 12% skew.
Tom qab peaking ntawm 36% thaum Lub Rau Hli 18, qhov siab tshaj plaws-puas yog cov ntaub ntawv, qhov taw qhia tau rov qab mus rau tam sim no 15%. Cov kev lag luam kev xaiv tau pom tias muaj kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli 25, thaum 25% delta skew thaum kawg tsoo qis dua 18%.
Tam sim no 25% skew qhia txuas ntxiv tso saib cov kev pheej hmoo siab dua ntawm kev poob qis los ntawm cov tub lag luam kev tshaj lij tab sis nws tsis zaum ntawm theem uas cuam tshuam txog kev pheej hmoo txaus ntshai.
Related: Celsius Network ntiav cov kws pab tswv yim ua ntej muaj peev xwm ua lag luam - Qhia
Hauv qab tuaj yeem yog nyob rau hauv raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov saw hlau
Qee qhov kev ntsuas qhia tias Bitcoin tej zaum yuav tau qis dua rau lub Rau Hli 18 tom qab cov miners muag ntau ntawm BTC. Raws li Cointelegraph, qhov no qhia tias capitulation tau tshwm sim twb thiab Glassnode, ib lub tuam txhab kev soj ntsuam ntawm cov saw hlau, pom tau tias Bitcoin Mayer Ntau yam poob qis dua 0.5, uas yog qhov tsawg kawg nkaus thiab tsis tau tshwm sim txij li xyoo 2015.
Whales thiab arbitrage rooj yuav siv sij hawm qee lub sij hawm los kho tom qab cov players tseem ceeb nyiam Peb Leeg Peev Peev ntsib qhov kev cog lus loj thiab kev txaus ntshai vim tsis muaj peev txheej lossis cov peev txheej ntau dhau. Txog thaum muaj pov thawj txaus tias qhov kev pheej hmoo sib kis tau txo qis, tus nqi Bitcoin tej zaum yuav txuas ntxiv mus pauv qis dua $ 22,000.
Cov kev xav thiab cov kev xav ntawm no tsuas yog cov ntawm cov sau thiab tsis tas ua kev cuam tshuam cov views ntawm Cointelegraph. Txhua qhov nqis peev thiab kev lag luam tawm mus cuam tshuam nrog kev pheej hmoo. Koj yuav tsum ua koj tus kheej tshawb fawb thaum txiav txim siab.
Tau qhov twg los: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-short-term-price-prospects-slightly-improved-but-most-traders-are-far-from-optimistic