"'Bitcoin, Kuv hu nws ua qog. Vaj tse yog lwm qog. Tib neeg muaj qhov kev xav no tias kev lag luam yuav tsum coj raws li lawv xav tias lawv yuav tsum coj. Thaum koj saib kev lag luam lawv viav vias los ntawm tus nqi dhau mus rau qis dua.'"
Cov tub lag luam tuaj yeem txaus siab rau txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag yooj yim rau kev nqa nws tau muab kev lag luam txij thaum pib muaj kev sib kis tshwj xeeb, tab sis Nassim Taleb, tus kws saib xyuas kev pheej hmoo thiab tus kws sau ntawv "The Black Swan," tsis xav tias nws tau ua rau lawv. nyiam.
Hauv kev xam phaj pub dawb nrog CNBC's "Squawk Box" rau hnub Thursday, Taleb tau hais tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve qhov kev txiav txim siab los tswj hwm txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag yooj yim heev kom ntev mus txog thaum nyuam qhuav tsim qee "mob" hauv kev lag luam. Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem ua yuam kev ib tiam ntawm cov tub ua lag luam mus rau overestimating qhov yooj yim ntawm kev ua neej nyob xaiv cov khoom lag luam.
Nws npe bitcoin
BTCUSD,
raws li ib qho ntawm cov "cov qog." Nws hais txog vaj tsev, ib yam nkaus, tej zaum yuav hais txog Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht, uas tau nthuav tawm ntawm qhov kev pab cuam nrog Taleb thiab leej twg tsis ntev los no. qhia ib co lus foreboding ntawm nws tus kheej hais txog kev lag luam vaj tse.
Raws li tus neeg ua lag luam ntev thiab tus sau tau piav qhia, cov qoob loo tam sim no ntawm cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam tsis tau muaj kev cuam tshuam nrog kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam, uas yuav tshwm sim los ntawm cov paj laum nce tam sim no los ntawm Fed. Nws yog qhov sib cav thawj zaug qhov no tau tshwm sim txij li xyoo 1980s.
Taleb tau hais tias, "Tam sim no tib neeg yuav pom tias muaj lub sijhawm muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm cov nyiaj," Taleb hais, hais txog lub tswv yim kev lag luam nrov uas piav qhia tias vim li cas ib duas hnub no muaj nqis dua li qub duas nyob rau qee lub sijhawm yav tom ntej.
"Lawv yuav tsum kawm txog txoj cai tswjfwm kev lag luam yuav tsum yog thiab txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag yuav tsum tsis yog," nws hais. "Koj yuav tsum coj cov paj laum rov qab mus rau qib qub thiab lawv tsis tuaj yeem sib txawv ntau."
Thaum nug dab tsi nws yuav xav txog "ib txwm," Taleb hais tias nyob ib puag ncig "3% lossis 4%," uas yog nyob ib puag ncig qhov twg Fed cov tub lag luam yav tom ntej tau cia siab tias cov paj laum yuav yog tom qab xyoo no, raws li CME's FedWatch cuab yeej.
Cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis hauv 2022, nrog S&P 500
SPX,
nyob rau hauv lub lag luam dais raws li Fed aggressively nce nqi nyob rau hauv nws kev rau siab kom tau txais kev nce nqi nyob rau hauv kev tswj. S&P 500 tau tawm 0.6% rau hnub Thursday yav tav su, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
tuav ze ntawm txoj kab ncaj nraim thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
poob qis dua 1%.
Taleb tseem ceeb toom rau Fed tiv thaiv kev rov qab los thiab hais tias "ib tiam neeg" tau txais nyiaj ntau los ntawm kev nqis peev uas siv "txoj kev tsis raug" vim tias cov paj laum qis thiab Fed cov nyiaj tau txais txiaj ntsig ntau.
Nws tau hais tias "Kuv yuav ceev faj tsis txhob siv txoj cai nyiaj txiag los ntawm kev txo cov paj laum ntau dhau, vim tias qhov ntawd yog qhov coj peb los ntawm no," nws hais.
Thaum kawg ntawm kev sib tham, raws li cov qhab nia pib dov, tham tig mus rau Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
thiab tom qab ntawd rau nws CEO, Elon Musk.
"Elon Musk thaiv kuv ntawm Twitter," Taleb tso dag, hais txog tweet los ntawm xyoo tas los no.
"Squawk Box" tus tswv tsev Andrew Ross Sorkin thiab Becky Quick teb nrog kev tso dag hauv hom: Yog tias Musk yuav tsum tau txais kev tswj hwm ntawm Twitter Inc.
TWG,
thiab ncaws Taleb tawm ntawm lub platform, lawv hais tias, nws tuaj yeem "ib txwm tuaj ntawm no."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-says-bitcoin-and-real-estate-are-market-tumors-caused-by-feds-easy-money- 11663265234?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo