Txawm hais tias Bitcoin (BTC) thiab dav crypto lag luam tau ntsib ib qho ib ntus nyob rau hauv thawj hnub ntawm lub xyoo tshiab, on-chain cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias kev ua lag luam tseem nyob rau hauv ib tug sib sib zog nqus slumber. Raws li Glassnode piav qhia hauv nws qhov tseeb daim ntawv qhia, tus nqi BTC tau qhia keeb kwm tsis muaj kev hloov pauv hauv lub lis piam dhau los.
Thiab raws li cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov saw hlau rau Bitcoin, tam sim no tsis muaj laj thawj me ntsis los ntseeg tias kev ntxhov siab hauv kev ua lag luam yuav hloov sai sai. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias muaj kev txav mus los, nws yuav zoo li yog qhov kev lag luam tawg, xws li nyob rau hauv lub voj voog yav dhau los thaum volatility yog qis heev.
Txhawm rau txhawb qhov kev tshawb fawb no, Glassnode hais txog Bitcoin qhov kev paub tsis meej nyob rau lub hli dhau los, uas yog nyob rau ntau xyoo qis ntawm 24.6%. Raws li daim duab hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias, muaj ob peb zaug hauv Bitcoin keeb kwm thaum nws tau qis qis no. Feem ntau, BTC pom kev sib tw tom qab kev ua lag luam sawv; tsuas yog nyob rau hauv ib rooj plaub, thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2018, tus nqi poob qis heev (-50%).
Kev siv Bitcoin Network tsawg
Tsis tas li ntawd, lub hauv paus tsis muaj zog rau Bitcoin tau txheeb xyuas los ntawm Glassnode hauv kev siv txuas ntxiv txuas ntxiv. Thaum cov kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov saw hlau tau nce ntxiv tom qab FTX vau, lub uptick luv luv tom qab. Qhov nruab nrab txhua hli ntawm qhov chaw nyob Bitcoin tshiab tau nce mus txog qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo dua.
Tag nrho cov nqi pauv ntawm lub network yog nyob rau hauv lub caij nplooj zeeg dawb. Thaum lub sijhawm hloov pauv txhua hnub tseem nyob ib puag ncig $ 40 nphom hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2022, tam sim no tsuas yog $ 5.8 nphom / hnub. Tus nqi yog li rov qab rau qib ua ntej xyoo 2020.
Raws li Glassnode, qhov no qhia txog kev hloov pauv ntawm lub tuam txhab peev. Qhov no tau tshwm sim nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb tias feem ntawm kev hloov pauv ntau dua $ 10 lab tau poob los ntawm 42.8% ua ntej poob ntawm FTX tsuas yog 19.0%. Glassnode hais tias:
Qhov no qhia tau hais tias muaj kev cuam tshuam tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam loj ntawm cov peev txheej, thiab tej zaum muaj kev cuam tshuam loj ntawm kev ntseeg siab tshwm sim ntawm pawg neeg no. Nws kuj tseem tuaj yeem cuam tshuam, ib feem, thiab tu siab, kev tshem tawm ntawm cov lus nug cov peev txheej cuam tshuam nrog FTX / Alameda cov koom haum.
Ib qho kev taw qhia ntawm kev tawg los ntawm kev ntxhov siab tuaj yeem yog qhov nkag thiab tawm ntawm kev sib pauv. Tab sis ib zaug ntxiv, Glassnode sau tseg tias cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov saw hlau tseem tsis tau teeb tsa lub sijhawm rau kev tawg. Bitcoin inflows tam sim no nyob nruab nrab ntawm $ 350 lab thiab $ 400 lab nyob rau ib hnub, ib tug deb quaj los ntawm cov billions pom nyob rau hauv 2021-22, raws li Glassnode.
Qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb tseem nyob Bearish
Raws li lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb, Realized Cap yog ib qho ntawm cov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov saw hlau. Hmoov tsis zoo, qhov ntsuas tam sim no muab BTC cov tub ua lag luam cia li cia siab me ntsis rau kev hloov pauv txhua lub sijhawm sai sai. Lub Bitcoin Realized Cap tau poob qis 18.8% txij li tag nrho lub sijhawm siab, sawv cev rau cov peev nyiaj tawm ntawm - $ 88.4 billion los ntawm lub network.
"Qhov no ua rau qhov thib ob loj tshaj plaws txheeb ze poob rau hauv keeb kwm, thiab qhov loj tshaj plaws ntawm USD paub txog kev poob," Glassnode sau tseg, taw qhia ntawm daim duab hauv qab no. Tsuas yog nyob rau hauv 2011/2012, lub lag luam poob qis zuj zus los ntawm 24%.
Thaum kawg ntawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom, Glassnode hais tias:
[Kuv] tsis tshua muaj rau cov xwm txheej zoo li no nyob ib puag ncig ntev. Lub sijhawm dhau los qhov twg BTC thiab ETH volatility yog qhov qis no tau ua ntej qhov chaw lag luam tsis tshua muaj kev hloov pauv, nrog cov piv txwv yav dhau los ua lag luam siab dua thiab qis dua.
Thaum lub sijhawm xovxwm, BTC tau maj mam sib tsoo siab dua hauv daim ntawv 1-hnub. Tus nqi sawv ntawm $ 17,268.
Cov duab tshwj xeeb los ntawm Jievani Weerasinghe / Unsplash, Daim duab los ntawm TradingView.com
Tau qhov twg los: https://newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-on-chain-data-weak-baseline-2023/