Jaran Mellerud ntawm Hashrate Index tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm 'kev tshuaj xyuas dav dav' ntawm qhov thesis tias Bitcoin miner capitulation tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev muag khoom loj hauv khw, ua rau muaj kev sib tsoo. Lub ntsiab lus tau rov ua dua ib feem ntawm kev sib tham nyob rau lub asthiv tsis ntev los no hais tias seb BTC dais lag luam puas tuaj yeem ncua ntev los ntawm kev lag luam mining nruj.
Charles Edwards ntawm Capriole Investments tau hais ob lub lis piam dhau los hais tias cov miner capitulation tau pib, raws li qhia los ntawm hash ribbons. Kev nqis peev loj VanEck kuj tsis ntev los no luam tawm ib qho kev txheeb xyuas tias kev lag luam dais tuaj yeem txuas ntxiv mus rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm 2023 vim muaj kev cuam tshuam cov miner. Lub tuam txhab kwv yees tias BTC tuaj yeem qis dua ntawm $ 10,000 txog $ 12,000 hauv Q1 2023.
Mellerud suav qhov kev xav no los ntawm kev hais tias cov miners 'tag nrho BTC tuav tsis tseem ceeb txaus los txav chaw lag luam.
Puas yog Bitcoin Miners tsis muaj zog li ntseeg?
Hashrate Index Analyst sau tias txhua tus miners yuav tsum sib sau ua ke muaj ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom xa tuaj kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. Txawm li cas los xij, cov lus nug ntawm tus naj npawb ntawm lawv cov tuav yog qhov tsis paub zoo, txawm hais tias kwv yees muaj nyob.
On-chain cov chaw muab ntaub ntawv xws li CoinMetrics thiab Glassnode muab qhov zoo tshaj plaws-paub kwv yees, los ntawm kev pab pawg neeg lub hnab nyiaj raws li lawv qhov sib thooj rau Coinbase pauv. Mellerud thov tias cov lej no yuav ua rau muaj kev kwv yees ntau dhau ntawm cov miners 'Bitcoin tuav. CoinMetrics kwv yees 820,000 BTC rau txhua tus miners thoob ntiaj teb.
Lwm qhov ua tau yog muab tus lej los ntawm Bitcoin tuav ntawm pej xeem miners. Siv cov duab no, Mellerud kwv yees 470,000 Bitcoin.
Nrog 19.2 lab BTC tam sim no nyob rau hauv kev, miners yog li tuav tsuas yog ntawm 2% thiab 4%. "Cov pej xeem cov duab ntawm cov miners ua cov neeg tuav bitcoin loj heev thiab cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig yuav tau raug kaum xyoo dhau los [...] Lub sij hawm tau hloov pauv, thiab cov miners tsis tuav ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv Bitcoin, "Mellerud hais.
BTC Holdings By Miners Vs. Spot Volume
Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm lub peev xwm muag siab, nws tseem ceeb heev kom paub qhov luaj li cas ntawm lub khw muag khoom kom paub seb lub khw tuaj yeem nqus qhov muag siab npaum li cas. Raws li Mellerud, txoj hauv kev zoo tshaj plaws los kwv yees qhov muag siab ntawm cov miners yog saib ntau npaum li cas BTC lawv tau txais txhua hnub.
Feem ntau hais lus, txog 900 qhov tshiab minted Bitcoins ntws mus rau hauv cov hnab nyiaj miners txhua hnub. Thaum cov miners muag tsawg dua 100% ntawm lawv cov khoom, lawv khaws Bitcoin; thaum lawv muag ntau tshaj 100%, lawv txo lawv cov tuav.
Daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias Bitcoin muag los ntawm miners peaked nyob rau lub Rau Hli thaum lawv muag 350% ntawm lawv cov khoom. Rau tag nrho lub xyoo, tus nqi yog 150% ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws.
Siv Binance qhov chaw ntim, Mellerud qhia hauv daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no tias qhov muag siab ntawm 100% ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsuas yog 0.2% ntawm qhov chaw ntim. Ntawm 200%, nws tsuas yog 0.4%, thiab ntawm 300%, nws tseem tsuas yog 0.6% ntawm tag nrho cov ntim. Mellerud xaus lus:
Vim tias qhov sib faib me me ntawm Bitcoin miners 'kev xav qhov ntim piv rau Bitcoin tag nrho qhov chaw ntim, peb pom tias Bitcoin yuav tsum muaj ntau tshaj li qhov txaus hauv nws lub khw muag khoom kom haum rau kev muag khoom los ntawm cov miners.
Nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej phem tshaj plaws los ntawm Mellerud, nyob rau hauv uas txhua tus miners pov tseg tag nrho lawv cov tuav hauv 30 hnub (sib npaug faib rau txhua hnub), qhov muag siab ntawm 470,000 BTC (4,900 BTC ib hnub) tsuas yog rau 1% ntawm tag nrho cov chaw. ntim.
Tsuas yog yog tias qhov kev tuav pov hwm tiag tiag yog 820,000 BTC thiab lawv tau tag nrho cov kua hauv 30 hnub, nws yuav ua rau muaj kev sib tsoo ntawm tus nqi Bitcoin, Mellerud hais. Cov miners tom qab ntawd suav txog ze li 7% ntawm qhov chaw ntim.
Tus nqi Bitcoin tam sim no muaj kev poob qis ntawm 3.5% hauv ob peb teev dhau los. Thaum lub sijhawm xovxwm, BTC tau ua lag luam ntawm $ 17,035.
Tau qhov twg los: https://newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-miner-capitulation-is-exaggerated/