Hnub Wednesday, Lub Xya Hli 13, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau tshaj tawm tias tus nqi nce nyiaj txhua xyoo rau cov neeg siv khoom tau nce mus txog 9.1% txog rau lub Rau Hli xyoo no. Qhov no daim duab, uas cim ib plaub caug-xyoo siab, co co Tshuag thiab cryptocurrency kev lag luam.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tau siv rau kev nce nqi, raws li Thomas Peterffy, tus neeg nplua nuj uas yog tus tsim thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam online. Cov Kev Sib Tham Sib Tham, leej twg hais lus nrog Forbes over tham video.
Nws tau hais tias "Kuv ntseeg tias kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag yuav txuas ntxiv mus rau xyoo, tsis yog hli, qhov no tsis yog qhov teeb meem luv luv," nws hais.
Qhov tseem ceeb, thaum Lub Ib Hlis, Peterffy tau pom zoo tias cov tub ua lag luam txiav txim siab khaws 2-3% ntawm lawv cov nyiaj hauv cryptocurrencies raws li kev tiv thaiv kev nce nqi thiab qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm fiat txiaj "mus rau ntuj txiag teb tsaus." Txawm li cas los xij, Peterffy tau hnov tsis tshua muaj kev ntseeg siab tam sim no vim yog kev lag luam vau thiab nyiaj txiag teeb meem uas tau roiled lub crypto sector.
"Kuv xav tias yuav muaj ntau heev uas [Bitcoin] yuav dhau los ua tsis muaj nqis lossis raug cai," ntawm qee kis, Peterffy tau hais. Nws ntseeg tias tsoomfwv Meskas yuav sim tawm tsam cryptocurrencies vim lawv "muab nyiaj txiag rau kev ua txhaum cai," nrog rau US Treasury Department tsis muaj peev xwm "tswj lossis khaws cov nyiaj them se thiab sau se."
Nws tsis yog tias Peterffy tau muab tag nrho rau cov cuab tam digital tam sim no. Nws tuav nws txoj kev ntseeg tias muaj qhov ua tau Bitcoin tej zaum yuav muaj nuj nqis heev yav tom ntej. Vim li no, nws tseem khaws qee qhov Bitcoin thiab npaj siab yuav tau ntau dua yog tias tus nqi nce mus txog $ 12,000. Tam sim no, Bitcoin ua lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 21,800, thaum lub sijhawm tshaj tawm.
Ntau qhov laj thawj vim li cas kev nce nqi tsis yog lub sijhawm luv
Muaj ntau qhov laj thawj vim li cas kev nce nyiaj txiag nyob ntawm no, raws li tus neeg nplua nuj, suav nrog ntau xyoo ntawm kev siv nyiaj tsis txaus US; txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam hauv cov saw hlau xa khoom raws li globalization "rov qab."
Nws hais ntxiv tias muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm kev ua haujlwm tsim nyog thiab nce automation; tuam txhab 'self-imposed YOG G (ib puag ncig, kev sib raug zoo, thiab kev tswj hwm) cov cai uas "tsim nqi ntawm kev tsim khoom"; thiab, ironically, nce cov paj laum, tib lub tswv yim tsim los txo kev nce nqi.
"Raws li Fed nce tus nqi paj, nws tab tom nce tus nqi uas lub teb chaws yuav tsum them rau kev pabcuam. Qhov no yog lub voj voog tsis zoo uas thaum kawg yuav ua rau muaj nuj nqis tawg. "
Peterffy tsis cia siab tias yuav nce tus lej thib ob
Feem coob ntawm cov neeg koom nrog kev ua lag luam cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce tus nqi paj laum qee zaum tom qab lub hlis no los ntawm tsawg kawg yog 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, thiab tej zaum txawm los ntawm ib feem pua ntawm tag nrho.
Qhov nce ntawm tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los uas tau txais txiaj ntsig ib hlis dhau los yog qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv 28 xyoo dhau los. Txawm li cas los xij, Peterffy tsis xav tias yuav rov muaj dua xyoo 1980, thaum tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Paul Volcker tau nce cov paj laum rau ob tus lej, uas ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis tab sis ua tiav hauv kev tswj hwm kev nce nqi.
"Kuv tsis ntseeg tias Fed yuav ua raws li nws 'ua li nws yuav siv' cov lus cog tseg [kom txo qis nyiaj txiag], vim tias lawv ntshai tsam kev puas tsuaj rau kev lag luam thiab qhov teeb meem nuj nqis," nws hais. Hloov chaw, "Fed yuav txo qis tus nqi ntsuas ib puag ncig 4% thiab vim li ntawd, kev nce nqi yuav nce mus txog 6% rau ob peb xyoos tom ntej no - Yuav muaj kev sib tw rau ib ntus," nws kwv yees.
Txawm hais tias nws qhov kev kwv yees pessimistic, Peterffy ntseeg tias kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv Tebchaws Meskas yuav ncav cuag pob zeb hauv qab sai li sai tau thaum lub caij nplooj zeeg.
Raws li tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam, S&P 500 yuav poob rau tus nqi qis li 3,000 thaum Lub Kaum Hli, uas yuav sawv cev qis dua 21% ntawm nws tam sim no tus nqi ntawm ntau dua 3,800. Txij li thaum nce mus txog qhov siab tshiab txhua lub sijhawm nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis xyoo tas los, S&P 500 index tau poob ntau dua 20%.
Peterffy hais tias "Thaum kawg tus nqi nce yuav nce nrog cov khoom lag luam," hais Peterffy, thiab vim li ntawd, "cov khoom lag luam yuav nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntev ntawm kev lag luam bulled los ntawm kev nce nqi. Nov yog lub sijhawm zoo los tshawb fawb thiab khaws cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab. "
Peterffy tsis tshua tsom rau ua lag luam nyob rau hauv tej sectors los yog kev lag luam; Hloov chaw, cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsom mus rau cov tuam txhab lag luam uas "kev nqis peev hauv lawv [tus kheej] kev sib tw hauv ib puag ncig no."
Disclaimer: Cov ntsiab lus ntawm lub xaib no yuav tsum tsis txhob suav hais tias yog cov lus qhia txog kev nqis peev. Kev nqis peev yog speculative. Thaum kev nqis peev, koj cov peev nyiaj muaj kev pheej hmoo.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finbold.com/billionaire-brokerage-pioneer-warns-chances-are-high-bitcoin-will-become-worthless/