Ua raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom tsis ntev los no hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom lag luam uas qhia tias kev nce nqi hauv Asmeskas tau mus txog 40-xyoo siab, ntau tus cia siab tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce tus nqi paj laum los ntawm 75 txog 100 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus (bps) thaum Lub Xya Hli 26. Blackstone's Private Wealth Solutions cia siab tias. Fed kom nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 bps thiab bankrate.com ntseeg tias kev nce qib peb-lub hlis twg yog nyob rau hauv daim npav ib yam.
Txhua Lub Qhov Muag ntawm Fed's Next Move - Market Strategists Predict a 75 mus rau 100 bps Cov paj laum nce toj lub lim tiam tom ntej
Lub lim tiam tom ntej, kwv yees li rau hnub txij li tam sim no, Asmeskas lub tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav sib ntsib dua ib zaug txhawm rau txheeb xyuas thiab hloov pauv tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau nce tus nqi ntsuas txij li nruab nrab Lub Peb Hlis 2022. Lub sijhawm ntawd nyob rau lub Peb Hlis, lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab. nce tus nqi paj laum los ntawm zero mus rau 0.25% thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2018. Tom qab Fed ua li ntawd, US kev nce nqi nce ntxiv thiab JPMorgan cov kws lag luam. kwv yees lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav nce tus nqi los ntawm 75 bps nyob rau lub Rau Hli.
Qhov kev kwv yees nce nqi tuaj yeem ua tiav raws li Asmeskas lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau nce tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 75 bps thaum Lub Rau Hli 15, 2022. Tebchaws Asmeskas tsis tau pom 75 bps dhia txij li xyoo 1994 thaum Alan Greenspan tau ua tus thawj coj thib 13 ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve. Thaum lub sij hawm, lub teb chaws tau tswj hwm los ntawm Democrat Thawj Tswj Hwm Bill Clinton thiab kev nce nqi qis heev ntawm 2.7%. Txawm li cas los xij, ntau tus neeg soj ntsuam thaum lub sijhawm hais tias Greenspan feem ntau yog hawkish thiab kev lag luam indices tau dhau los ua kev hloov pauv.
Ua ntej Greenspan's infamous 75 bps tus nqi nce mus, lub thev naus laus zis Cisco Systems tau pom 16% poob ntawm tus nqi thiab poob 54% mus txog rau lub Kaum Hlis 1994. Kev sib koom los ntawm Cov Khoom Siv Siv tau kho los ntawm 30%, thiab EMC pom qhov poob zoo sib xws. Tus tswv lag luam peev ntawm Goldman Sachs, Abby Cohen, sau tseg uas ze li ntawm 40% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua 30% los ntawm cov saum toj kawg nkaus tau mus txog xyoo 1994. Greenspan pib nruj txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag, thiab tus kws tshaj lij kev nqis peev ntawm Standard & Poor, Arnold Kaufman, tau hais thaum lub sijhawm tias US kev lag luam yuav rov qab los. hauv 1995.
"Peb tsis pom qhov no ua lag luam dais," Kaufman piav qhia xyoo ntawd. "Qhov txawv yog tias peb tab tom yuav lub tswv yim 'muab tsaws' [rau kev lag luam], thaum lwm tus tsis yog."
Kaufman yog qhov tseeb, raws li Asmeskas kev lag luam nce thiab kev lag luam indices tsis tshua muaj kev hloov pauv, thiab pib nce tsis tu ncua nyob rau xyoo 1995. Ntau tshaj 27 xyoo tom qab ntawd, 16th lub rooj zaum ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, Jerome Powell, zoo li nyob rau hauv hom hawkish txij li thaum. thawj tus nqi nce hauv lub Peb Hlis. Thaum kev nce nqi tseem pheej luam tawm mus tas li, Powell xav tias hais tias tam sim no tus nqi pressures yuav dissipate sai, thiab lub hauv paus bank lub rooj zaum ntseeg hais tias lub Fed muaj peev xwm tswj tau lub scorching kub inflation.
Blackstone thiab Bankrate.com mem hluav nyob rau hauv 75 bps Rate Hike, Lwm tus Cia siab tias dhia 100 bps
Tam sim no, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev hauv Blackstone's Private Wealth Solutions pawg, Joseph Zidle, ntseeg tias kev nce qib 75 bps yuav tshwm sim rau lub lim tiam tom ntej. "Kuv tus kheej pom yog Fed cov nyiaj tau los tuaj yeem tshaj 4%. Kuv xav tias lawv tuaj yeem mus siab dua 4.5%, tej zaum kuj ze rau 5%, "Zidle hais rau Bloomberg thaum sib tham. Ntxiv rau Blackstone qhov kev kwv yees, bankrate.com kuj yog kev twv saib xyuas nce 75 bps thaum lub rooj sib tham Fed tom ntej. Bankrate.com hais tias Asmeskas lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab cov neeg tsim cai "tsis muaj qhov qhia txog kev txwv." Lub tuam txhab nyiaj txiag sib piv lub vev xaib ntxiv:
Cov kev kwv yees tshiab kuj tau tshaj tawm nrog rau lub Rau Hli kev txiav txim siab qhia qhov kev kwv yees rau 3.25-3.5 feem pua ntawm tsoomfwv cov peev nyiaj los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 2022, qhov siab tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008.
Lub caij no, muaj ntau qhov kev kwv yees ntau dua, raws li qee tus ntseeg tias qhov nce 100 bps tuaj yeem tshwm sim tau zoo heev. "Nrog kev nce nqi kub heev, Fed tus nqi nce ntxiv tuaj yeem yog qhov loj tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo," daim ntawv qhia luam tawm los ntawm Barron cov ntawv sau thiab cov ntsiab lus ntawm tus nqi tom ntej no tuaj yeem yog 1%. Tsis tas li ntawd, lwm qhov chaw stems los ntawm cov nyiam CBS, Thiab CNBC, qhia tias qhov nce 100 bps yuav tshaj tawm hnub Wednesday tom ntej ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas (FOMC) lub rooj sib tham txhua hli.
Koj xav tias Fed yuav ua li cas thaum lub rooj sib tham FOMC tom ntej? Koj puas xav tias 75 bps lossis 100 bps nce lub lim tiam tom ntej? Qhia rau peb paub koj cov kev xav txog cov ncauj lus no hauv nqe lus hauv qab no.
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Disclaimer: Kab lus no tsuas yog rau kev ua ntaub ntawv xwb. Nws tsis yog qhov ncaj qha lossis kev thov rau qhov kev yuav lossis muag, lossis kev pom zoo lossis kev pom zoo ntawm ib yam khoom, kev pabcuam, lossis tuam txhab. Bitcoin.com tsis muab peev, peev nyiaj, cai lij choj, lossis tswv yim nyiaj txiag. Tsis yog cov tuam txhab lossis cov neeg sau ntawv ua lub luag haujlwm, ncaj qha lossis tsis ncaj rau, rau ib qho kev puas tsuaj lossis poob lossis ua rau raug iab liam los ntawm lossis kev sib txuas nrog kev siv lossis kev cia siab rau qee cov ntsiab lus, khoom muag lossis kev pabcuam tau hais hauv tsab xov xwm no.
Tau qhov twg los: https://news.bitcoin.com/analysts-suspect-the-fed-will-bump-federal-funds-rate-by-75-bps-next-week-others-predict-the-biggest-hike- hauv-xyoos /