Txij li thaum Lub Rau Hli, Bitcoin (BTC) - thiab kev lag luam dav dav tom qab - tau nyob rau hauv capitulation, tsis yog ib tug puv tes ntawm kev sib tham pom nyob rau hauv lub caij ntuj sov ntawm lub lag luam tsis tu ncua raws li on-chain cov ntaub ntawv muab los ntawm Glassnode, thiab soj ntsuam los ntawm CryptoSlate.
Ob lub khw muag nyuj thiab dais nthuav tawm cov ntaub ntawv kev xav ntawm cov saw hlau, xws li 'Capitulation' mus rau 'Euphoria - Kev ntshaw. Hauv qhov siab ntawm lub khw muag nyuj, sab saum toj yog keeb kwm qhia thaum Euphoria tuav nruj. Ntawm qhov tod tes, Capitulation feem ntau taw qhia hauv qab.
Tsis tu ncua capitulation
Daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias BTC tau ruaj khov rau hauv Capitulation kev xav raws li Net Unrealized Profit / Loss (NUPL) cov ntaub ntawv ntawm cov saw hlau qhia txog qhovntsej thiaj tsis mob hauv thaj chaw liab pom yav dhau los hauv 2012, 2015, thiab 2019.
Bitcoin: Txo cov khoom xa tuaj
Lub Bitcoin: Feem pua Supply hauv profit (7-hnub Tsiv Nruab Nrab) metric qhia tau hais tias tam sim no, tsuas yog 54% ntawm BTC cov khoom xa tuaj kawg tau tsiv mus nyob rau hauv cov nyiaj tau los. Los ntawm FTX lub cev qhuav dej, qhov kev ntsuas no qhia txog BTC cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua 50% - ib theem uas tsuas yog tshwm sim thaum dais lag luam qis.
Bitcoin: Tshaj lossis qis dua?
Kev soj ntsuam ntawm MVRV Z-Score (7-hnub Tsiv Nruab Nrab) metric qhia tias peb twb dhau 170 hnub hauv qab tus nqi paub.
Txawm hais tias Bitcoin tau mus rau saum tus nqi paub raws li qhov tshwm sim ntawm dais kev lag luam rallies, keeb kwm yav dhau los dais hnub ua lag luam hauv qab tus nqi pom tau hais tias muaj peev xwm rau kev ua lag luam ntxiv.
Yav dhau los Bear Markets:
- 2019-20: 134 hnub hauv qab tus nqi paub
- 2015-16: 384 hnub hauv qab tus nqi paub
- 2011-12: 215 hnub hauv qab tus nqi paub
Txhawm rau txiav txim siab tag nrho cov kev ntsuas ntsuas hauv qhov kev tshuaj ntsuam no, cov cim ntawm kev lag luam hauv qab txheeb xyuas tau zoo ib yam nrog rau lwm lub lag luam dais. Txawm li cas los xij, hauv kev ntsuam xyuas thiab sib piv cov lag luam dais no rau cov lag luam dais yav dhau los, peb tuaj yeem yooj yim qis dua tus nqi paub rau lwm lub hlis mus rau ib xyoos.
Nrog rau qhov sib ntxiv ntawm geopolitical teeb meem, macro uncertainty, thiab headwinds, hu rau hauv qab nyob rau hauv ib tug unprecedented lub sij hawm xws li qhov no tsuas yog nyob twj ywm speculation coj los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm.
Tau qhov twg los: https://cryptoslate.com/analysis-of-on-chain-metrics-suggests-bitcoin-is-firmly-in-the-capitulation-phase/