Bitcoin (BTC) thiab lwm yam khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo poob rau Lub Kaum Hli 21 raws li cov tub luam tau tshuaj xyuas cov ntsuas macro uas qhia tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav txuas ntxiv mus nce nqi. Txawm li cas los xij, BTC / USD khub tseem nyob hauv thaj tsam ntawm $ 18,000 - $ 20,000 tus nqi, uas qhia txog kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv kev ua lag luam.
BTC tus nqi tuav tshaj $ 18K txij lub Rau Hli
Qhov tseem ceeb, BTC tus nqi tsis tuaj yeem dhia tob dua li ntawm $ 18,000 txij li nws tau sim thawj theem kev txhawb nqa thaum Lub Rau Hli 2022. Yog li ntawd, qee tus kws tshuaj ntsuam. ntseeg hais tias lub cryptocurrency yog bottoming tawm, muab nws twb kho los ntawm ntau tshaj 70% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv siab ntawm $69,000, tsim yuav luag ib xyoo dhau los.
"Lub sijhawm xyoo 2018 dais lag luam, BTC pom qhov poob siab tshaj plaws los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws mus rau 84%, kav ntev li 364 hnub, thaum lub voj voog xyoo 2014 tau ntev dua, qis dua tom qab 407 hnub," sau tseg Kev Tshawb Fawb Arcane hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev lag luam crypto txhua lub limtiam, ntxiv:
"Ob lub hauv qab tau ua raws li qhov tsis muaj qhov tsis sib xws."
Tsis tas li ntawd, ib qho kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev saib dav dav ntawm cov saw hlau Bitcoin kuj tseem qhia txog qhov muaj peev xwm thim rov qab ua ntej. Cia peb saib qee qhov kev ntsuas tseem ceeb tshaj plaws hauv keeb kwm.
Bitcoin MVRV-Z Score
MVRV-Z Score ntsuas Bitcoin tus overbought thiab oversold cov xwm txheej raws li nws txoj kev ua lag luam thiab tus nqi ncaj ncees.
Keeb kwm, thaum Bitcoin tus nqi lag luam hla tus nqi ncaj ncees, nws qhia txog kev ua lag luam sab saum toj (thaj chaw liab). Hloov pauv, nws qhia txog kev lag luam hauv qab (thaj chaw ntsuab) thaum tus nqi lag luam hla hauv qab tus nqi ncaj ncees.
MVRV-Z Score tau nyob hauv thaj chaw ntsuab txij li lub Rau Hli lig, qhia tias Bitcoin tau poob qis.
Tseg Risk
Bitcoin's Reserve Risk ntsuas qhov kev ntseeg siab ntawm tus token cov neeg tuav lub sijhawm ntev txheeb ze rau nws tus nqi ntawm lub sijhawm. Keeb kwm, qhov kev pheej hmoo siab dua Reserve (thaj tsam liab) tau ua ke nrog kev ua lag luam saum toj kawg nkaus, cuam tshuam txog kev nqis peev qis dua ntawm cov ntaub ntawv-siab Bitcoin nqi.
Hloov pauv, kev ntseeg siab dua thiab tus nqi qis dua Bitcoin txhais tau hais tias qhov tsawg dua Reserve Risk (thaj chaw ntsuab), lossis zoo dua qhov pheej hmoo / nqi zog rau kev nqis peev.
Bitcoin's Reserve Risk poob rau hauv thaj chaw ntsuab thaum lub Rau Hli lig, qhia tias BTC tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev thim rov qab muaj zog sai lossis tom qab.
Bitcoin Puell Ntau
Lub Puell Ntau yam qhia txog qhov sib piv ntawm qhov kev tshaj tawm Bitcoin txhua hnub (hauv Asmeskas las) thiab 365-hnub txav nruab nrab ntawm cov nqi tso tawm txhua hnub.
Cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias Bitcoin kev ua lag luam hauv qab tawm thaum Puell Ntau qhov poob rau hauv thaj chaw ntsuab uas txhais los ntawm 0.3-0.5 ntau yam. Hloov pauv, kev ua lag luam nce siab thaum qhov sib piv hla mus rau thaj tsam 4-8 liab.
Raws li lub Kaum Hlis, Bitcoin's Puell Ntau yog nyob rau hauv thaj chaw ntsuab, qhia txog qhov muaj peev xwm thim rov qab tus nqi ua ntej mus rau upside.
Raws li Cointelegraph qhia, BTC tshuav nyiaj li cas ntawm kev sib pauv cryptocurrency kuj tau poob mus rau ntau lub xyoo qis ntawm qhov nrawm tshaj plaws txij li lub Rau Hli, qhia tias cov nqi tam sim no tau dhau los ua qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib sau.
Cov kev xav thiab cov kev xav hais tawm ntawm no tsuas yog cov ntawm tus sau thiab tsis tas yuav cuam tshuam cov kev xav ntawm Cointelegraph.com. Txhua qhov kev nqis peev thiab kev lag luam tawm mus cuam tshuam nrog kev pheej hmoo, koj yuav tsum ua koj tus kheej kev tshawb fawb thaum txiav txim siab.
Tau qhov twg los: https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-historically-accurate-bitcoin-on-chain-metrics-are-flashing-bottom