(Bloomberg) - Ib qho "cathartic upchuck" hauv kev lag luam Tshuag tuaj yeem xa S & P 500 nqis 10% hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nruj tswj hwm txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag thiab kev nqis peev ntau ntxiv, raws li Chris Harvey, tus thawj coj ntawm kev ncaj ncees lub tswv yim ntawm Wells Fargo & Co.
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Harvey tau koom nrog Bloomberg's "Dab Tsi Mus Ntxiv" podcast los tham txog qhov no thiab lwm yam ntawm nws qhov kev xav ntawm 2022. Hauv qab no yog ib daim ntawv qhia yooj yim thiab hloov kho me ntsis ntawm kev sib tham. Nyem qhov no los mloog cov yeeb yam tag nrho thiab sau npe rau ntawm Apple Podcasts, Spotify lossis txhua qhov chaw koj mloog.
Q: Puas yog kev lag luam cov lus teb rau Fed feeb rau hnub Wednesday tsim nyog?
A: Nws yog cov tshuaj tiv thaiv tsim nyog. Ib pliag, tib neeg tau nug seb Fed puas muaj qhov twg thiab lub siab nyiam los tawm tsam kev nce nqi. Muaj kev sib tham txog kev hloov mus ntev heev. Powell tsis ntev los no so tawm cov kab lus no los yog hais tias nws yuav so haujlwm cov kab lus ntawd. Thiab tom qab ntawd thaum koj mloog cov feeb, lawv txhais tau tias kev lag luam. Thiab tib neeg thaum kawg paub tias Fed yuav ua li cas lawv yuav tsum tau ua los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem.
Tab sis qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, qhov tshwm sim tiag tiag hauv qab ntawm qhov chaw thiab tom qab qhov xwm txheej - koj yuav tsum khaws lub qhov muag ntse heev ntawm tus nqi tiag tiag. Qhov peb tau pom tag nrho xyoo tas los yog raws li tus nqi tiag tiag mus, ntau tus nqi txheeb ze hauv kev lag luam ncaj ncees mus. Yog li tus nqi tiag tiag nce mus, qhov kev lag luam cyclical ua haujlwm. Tus nqi tiag tiag poob qis, thiab lub sijhawm ntev lossis kev lag luam tech loj hlob ua haujlwm. Thiab qhov tshwm sim tam sim no yog tus nqi tiag tiag yuav siab dua, tech thiab kev loj hlob siab tau dov. Qhov ntawd yog ib feem loj ntawm kev ua lag luam.
Q: Fed's Neel Kashkari, uas ib txwm ua tau zoo heev, xav tias yuav muaj ob txoj kev taug kev hauv 2022. Puas yog dej txias rau lub ntsej muag mus rau qee yam?
A: Xyoo tas los no, kuv tau hais lus me ntsis vim peb tab tom saib thiab peb tau mloog cov ntawv sau tseg, peb tau saib tus nqi. Kuv tsis tau pom dua - hauv kuv ntau tshaj li ob xyoo caum ntawm Phab ntsa Street - qhov no ntawm tus nqi ib puag ncig. Muaj ib zaug, kuv tau nug ib tug ntawm kuv cov neeg koom tes, 'Hav, muab kuv txhais tes ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas nce nqi.' Nws hais tias, cia li xaiv peb. Thiab thaum kawg ntawm hnub, kuv xav tsis thoob tias nws tau siv sijhawm ntev rau Fed los teb. Tab sis tam sim no Fed tau hnov qab thiab koj tab tom pom kev sib tawg thiab koj pom qhov kev cia siab nyiaj txiag poob qis.
Muaj ntau tham txog stagflation ob, peb, plaub lub hlis dhau los. Koj yuav tsum coj stagflation tawm ntawm lub rooj vim tias Fed tab tom tawm tsam kev nce nqi. Lwm qhov uas tau tshwm sim yog Lub Ob Hlis 1 pib pib Suav Xyoo Tshiab. Qhov ntawd yog thaum cov khoom lag luam pib qeeb rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Kuv tsis tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam yuav raug kho, tab sis qhov tseeb peb xav tias kev ua lag luam yuav latch mus rau yog: Peb puas tau pom qhov siab tshaj plaws lossis qhov siab tshaj plaws? Peb puas tuaj yeem ua qee qhov kev txhim kho? Thiab yog tias muaj, qhov ntawd tseem ceeb heev vim tias muaj qhov cuam tshuam loj rau tus nqi, ntau thiab cov paj.
Q: Koj cia siab tias yuav kho 10% thaum lub caij ntuj sov. Dab tsi ua rau koj tso siab rau qhov kev twv ua ntej?
A: Muaj kev ntseeg siab tias kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem khoov, tab sis tsis tawg. Kev ua lag luam tuaj yeem poob 5%, peb tuaj yeem tawg dhau 50-hnub, peb tuaj yeem tsoo 100-hnub, tab sis peb yeej tsis tuaj yeem tawg. Zoo, peb nyob rau hauv lub xyoo thib ob rov qab, thiab feem ntau nyob rau hauv lub xyoo thib ob rov qab koj muaj ntau yam compression thiab koj muaj ntau yam nthuav ntau yam tshwm sim. Dab tsi koj muaj yog kev loj hlob qeeb, koj muaj kev txhoj puab heev Fed, koj nyob nraum lapping nyuaj sib piv thiab koj muaj qhov speculation.
Ib yam uas tau pab ntau ntawm cov npe no yog koj tau muaj nyiaj caum kev ua haujlwm - thaum qhov kev ua haujlwm tsis nyob ntawd, ces cov nyiaj yuav ploj mus. Thiab peb xav tias tib neeg yuav muag qhov tsis muaj zog thawj zaug hauv ib lub sijhawm rau cov laj thawj tseem ceeb, rau cov laj thawj technical. Lwm lo lus ua haujlwm rau 2022 yog normalization. Peb yuav siv lo lus no ib zaug ntxiv.
Q: Koj xav li cas rau cov neeg siv khoom txog qhov twg lawv yuav tsum tau nqis peev?
A: Qhov peb qhia rau lawv, los ntawm qib 5,000-ko taw, yog koj xav nce mus rau qhov zoo thiab xav mus rau hauv kev pheej hmoo. Thiab thaum peb tham txog kev ua tau zoo, nws yog cov tuam txhab nrog cov ntawv sib npaug zoo dua, koj xav tau nyiaj ntsuab ntawm daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj, koj xav tau qis dua, koj xav tau pab pawg tswj hwm zoo dua, cov neeg saib xyuas zoo ntawm peev. Thiab tom qab ntawd koj xav kom nyob deb ntawm cov neeg pluag dab neeg. Yog li koj xav tsom mus rau cov txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws. Thiab peb tsuas yog xav kom nyob deb ntawm cov dab neeg uas pheej hmoo ntau dua vim peb tsuas yog tsis xav tias koj tau txais nyiaj. Ib xyoos thiab ib nrab dhau los, qhov ntawd yog ib zaj dab neeg sib txawv. Tam sim no, koj tsis tau them nyiaj rau qhov ntawd.
Peb tau tsom mus rau ntau yam thiab style. Thiab ib qho ntawm peb nyiam txog qhov zoo yog ib qho, koj tsis them nyiaj. Koj tsis them los ntawm qhov ntswg kom zoo dua. Ob, koj nyob rau hauv lub voj voog lig, thiab feem ntau lig hauv lub voj voog yog lub sijhawm zoo rau kev ua tau zoo - qhov zoo dua thaum txoj kev loj hlob qeeb qeeb raws li qhov tsis zoo ntawm lub voj voog thaum ntxov uas qhov kev loj hlob sai sai. Thiab qhov kawg yog qhov zoo ua tau zoo dua rau qhov downside. Koj tuaj yeem koom nrog qhov upside, tab sis tiag tiag peb lub hom phiaj yog nyob rau hauv downside thiab zoo yuav tsum pab koj nyob rau hauv uas down daim kab xev. Yog li, tiag tiag koj xav ua kom zoo dua, koj xav txo qhov kev pheej hmoo hauv cov ntaub ntawv. Nws yog lub sijhawm pib tsim cov hmoov qhuav rau hnub los nag.
Q: Puas yog qhov kev loj hlob-ntawm-tus nqi lag luam tuag rau qhov zoo?
A: Dab tsi tshwm sim hauv kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees, txawm tias koj nyiam lossis tsis nyiam, yog cov nyiaj caum kev ua haujlwm, thiab tom qab ntawd thaum kev ua haujlwm tsis nyob ntawd, nyiaj tawm. Yog li koj yuav tsum pom tias ntxuav tawm. Peb xav pom ib qho repricing ntawm tus nqi tiag. Peb xav pom peb txav mus ntxiv rau lub sijhawm. Peb xav pom lwm qhov kev thawb hauv kev ua haujlwm. Thiab tom qab ntawd peb xav pom qhov ntawd - Kuv yuav siv cov kab lus zoo nkauj heev - qhov cathartic puke qhov twg thaum kawg peb pom cov neeg muag khoom qaug zog thiab qhov kawg liquidations.
Nws yog ib qho nyuaj hais tias nws yuav tshwm sim rau hnub tim ntawm lub sijhawm no. Tsis yog, peb tsis paub. Tab sis cov no yog cov cim qhia uas peb siv. Thiab qhov peb tau hais rau xyoo no yog peb xav tias qhov kev loj hlob-ntawm-txhua-nqi-cov khoom lag luam yuav muaj qhov hnyav thawj ib nrab vim tias cov nqi tiag yuav mus siab dua thiab vim li cas koj pom hnub no. Tab sis peb tawm ntawm lub qhov rooj qhib rau ib nrab hnub vim tias koj tuaj yeem pom kev lag luam qeeb, koj tuaj yeem pom qhov rov ua dua thiab koj tuaj yeem pom tias cathartic upchuck, lossis koj tuaj yeem pom cov neeg muag khoom tag nrho.
Nyem qhov no mus mloog cov podcast tag nrho.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veteran-equity-strategist-expects-cathartic-173019739.html