Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yog tom qab qhov nkhaus thaum nws los txog rau qhov txo qis ntawm daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas, raws li UBS Global Wealth Management's Kelvin Tay.
Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais rau hnub Tuesday tias nws cia siab tias yuav muaj cov paj laum ntau ntxiv rau xyoo no, nrog rau lwm qhov kev txo qis hauv kev pab cuam tshwj xeeb uas lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tau muab thaum muaj kev sib kis.
"Yog tias koj nqis ib kauj ruam rov qab thiab koj mloog nws hais. Nws tsis tau lees paub tiag tiag tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yog qhov tseeb tom qab nkhaus - tab sis lawv yeej yog, "Tay hais rau CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" hnub Wednesday.
Tay tau sau tseg tias Asmeskas cov khw lag luam tau ua tau zoo thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab hauv lub quarter thib ob thiab thib peb ntawm xyoo tas los kuj tseem nyob ntawm "ntau xyoo caum siab."
“Thiab lub sijhawm no lawv tseem luam tawm. Yog li koj yuav tsum xav tsis thoob vim li cas lawv tseem luam tawm ntawm qib no, puas yog? ”nws hais tias, ntxiv cov kev txhim kho tseem ceeb mus tom ntej yuav nrawm npaum li cas thiab Fed txo nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas.
Cov tub ua lag luam tab tom tos hnub Wednesday cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tseem ceeb los ntsuas cov duab nyiaj txiag thiab Fed qhov kev txav mus tom ntej.
Tsoomfwv Meskas lub tsev txhab nyiaj tau npau taws rau cov tub ua lag luam lub lim tiam dhau los tom qab cov feeb ntawm nws lub Kaum Ob Hlis lub rooj sib tham qhia cov tswvcuab tau npaj kom nruj txoj cai tswjfwm nyiaj txiag ntau dua li qhov xav tau yav dhau los.
Nws tau qhia tias nws tuaj yeem npaj tau pib nce tus nqi paj, hu rov qab rau nws qhov kev pabcuam nyiaj yuav khoom, thiab koom nrog kev sib tham hauv theem siab txog kev txo cov tuav ntawm Treasurys thiab qiv nyiaj rov qab.
Txhawm rau ua ntej ntawm qhov nkhaus, Tay tau hais tias Fed tuaj yeem pib normalizing daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj ua ntej tshaj qhov xav tau.
"Muaj 75% txoj hauv kev uas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce mus rau lub Peb Hlis thaum xaus. Kev sib cav tam sim no yog seb nws puas yog ob lossis peb txoj kev taug kev uas lub khw muaj kev txhawj xeeb. Nws tuaj yeem yog plaub txoj kev taug kev xyoo no ib yam, "nws hais.
Nws hais ntxiv tias tuaj yeem muaj teeb meem, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov khoom siv sib txuas tau yooj yim nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej vim qhov no tuaj yeem txo qis kev cia siab nyiaj txiag mus tom ntej.
"Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav tsis tas yuav pib ua kom daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas sai li sai tau," Tay piav qhia, ntxiv qhov xwm txheej ntawm theem no tseem muaj dej.
Tay kuj tau hais txog Fed txoj cai ceev ceev ceev yuav muaj feem cuam tshuam rau cov teb chaws Esxias, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov lag luam tawm tshiab hauv cheeb tsam.
"Yog tias koj cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 10-xyoo nce mus txog 2% thiab 2.5%, ces cov txiaj ntsig ntawm lub ntiaj teb no uas tsoomfwv muaj kev txhawj xeeb yuav tsum coj raws li," nws hais. Qhov no yuav cuam tshuam rau qee qhov kev lag luam hauv Asia muab lawv cov nuj nqis siab dua, nws hais ntxiv.
Hauv xyoo 2013, Fed tau ua rau lub npe hu ua taper tantrum thaum nws pib ua rau nws txoj kev yuav khoom vaj khoom tsev. Cov tub lag luam ntshai thiab nws ua rau muaj kev muag tawm hauv cov ntawv cog lus, ua rau Nyiaj Txiag yields nce.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov lag luam tawm tshiab hauv Asia raug kev txom nyem cov peev nyiaj tawm thiab kev poob qis, yuam cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv cheeb tsam kom nce cov paj paj los tiv thaiv lawv cov peev nyiaj.
Tay tau hais tias Fed txoj cai nruj tuaj yeem ua rau qeeb kev lag luam hauv Asia.
“Nws tsis yog ib yam uas koj xav tau ntawm lub sijhawm no. Vim tias nyob rau lub sijhawm no, ntau qhov kev lag luam ntawm no tseem tab tom tawm tsam kom rov zoo los ntawm Covid-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, "nws tau sau tseg.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/12/ubs-says-the-fed-is-behind-the-curve-in-shrinking-the-balance-sheet.html